Significance of the Victory in NY-23
To be sure, there were a lot of disappointments for Democrats last night: we didn’t take back the county lej, we lost ground in several towns, we lost the Virginia and New Jersey governors races, Bloomberg won reelection (if only by a smaller margin than expected) and the referendum ending gay marriage in Maine passed.
But there was one great victory for our side last night, especially for us upstate New Yorkers, and that was the upset win by Bill Owens over Doug Hoffman in New York’s 23rd congressional district. A large area of the North Country in the 23rd district has not been represented by a Democrat since for 159 years, since before the Civil War! The last non-Republican to represent Franklin County, for example, in the House of Representatives was a member of the Whig Party. This was a Democratic victory for the history books.
With the new Democratic congressman-elect Bill Owens, the grand total of Republican Representatives from the New York delegation is now 2 out of 29. That’s right, there are 27 Democrats and 2 Republicans — one in Long Island and the other in Western New York. This map here says it all:
After the endorsed Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava dropped out of the race this past Saturday, the conventional wisdom was that this district had become a real uphill battle for Democrats to win. The PPP released a poll on Sunday showing Hoffman in the lead by a huge 17% margin (51% to 34%). But Siena College, whose last poll of the special election turned out to be much more accurate, still showed Hoffman ahead with 41%, Owens with 36%, Scozzafava (after dropping out) with 6%, and a whopping 18% undecided. With almost all of the precincts in the district reporting, Siena nailed Scozzafava’s support as she ended up with 6% of residual support from voters. Extrapolating further on the poll and the actual results which have Owens winning with 49% and Hoffman with 45%, that means that of the 18% of undecided (the vast majority of whom were former Scozzafava supporters) Owens won them over to the Democratic side by a 2-1 margin over the new de facto Republican candidate Doug Hoffman.
Contrary to popular opinion, it was Scozzafava’s dropping out of the race and endorsing Owens out of anger at what had happened to her that handed this district to the Democrats. Ironically, had she stayed in the race, we would in all likelihood be talking about a victory for Hoffman and his teabagging allies. The impact of Scozzafava cannot be overstated: rather than unifying Republicans behind Hoffman, she unified moderates around Owens. Man, did Republicans shoot themselves in the foot on this one. In the words of stlo7, God bless Sarah Palin. She can always be counted on to screw up an election for the Republicans.
The results from each of the counties shows the impact of Scozzafava’s endorsement. For Owens to win, he needed a huge margin and high turnout in Saint Lawrence County, while holding down Hoffman’s numbers in the Oswego/Syracuse suburbs area. He succeeded in doing just that — he performed very well on Scozzafava’s home turf in Saint Lawrence County, won Jefferson County, and swept up in the northeastern counties around Plattsburgh. This map illustrates the winner of each county:
There are a number of conclusions that can be drawn from this race and from the results. First, there is no room in the modern far-right Republican Party for centrists like Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava and her supporters who dared to disagree with the party leadership on issues like marriage equality and the stimulus package.
Teabaggers and the Glenn Beck types may be popular in large parts of America like the South and the Midwestern Plains, but they can’t even win in a historically Republican district even when it was their race to lose. This was a rejection of the insane rhetoric and vile activities that we witnessed over the summer, and this was a repudiation of the “populist” Tea Party movement and any politician who dared to side with them. This was the first real test of their political clout and they failed.
Despite having lost, they came close enough so that undoubtedly many conservative Republicans will point to the results and say that more far-right candidates are what’s needed to win races. Candidates for the US Senate like Governor Charlie Crist from Florida are already under attack for not towing the party line one-hundred percent of the time. It’s good news for Democrats and progressives, because conservatives will do to many other moderate Republican candidates what they did to Dede Scozzafava in this race by destroying them for the sake of running an unelectable candidate.
Finally and most importantly, the established narrative for the past six months has been that Democrats face a very tough midterm election season in 2010. If that was truly the case that Democrats were facing a rising GOP tide that could wipe away their majority in the House, then the question must be asked, how did we even come close, let alone actually take the seat from the Republicans? My sense is that while the Dems are likely to lose some seats in 2010, it won’t be nearly as many as some are trying to make it out to be.
With one year to go, anything could happen — but if what happened in NY-23 is any sign, Democrats are doing relatively well and Republicans are still a long way from being out of the wilderness.




