NY-26 Jon Powers loses - What happened?
Well, that is the title I didn’t expect to write tonight - Powers loses the Primary. I’ll take a first crack at analysis without the benefit of others…
First off - Thank you Jon Powers for running. Personally, I believe you highlighted the importance of several issues - your experience grew with each passing day on the campaign trail and I believe, as I have written here - you have the most holistic view of the issues. Then again, as a fellow vet, I’m a little partial to things like command presence and poise. Hope to see you in the spot light of another race at some point in the future.
So what happened?
I’ll leave it to others to dissect, however - Did airbare call it a few days ago?
In particular, Jack Davis has not only smeared Jon Powers zealously and with passion. He has been able to smear himself beyond repair. He has single-handedly ruined any chance for the Democrats to retake this seat from the Republicans.
Maybe -
In the end it is about defining the candidate and getting their message out. Davis flooded the airwaves and internets with anti-powers material (ugly nasty material and it worked) . Those who are politically plugged-in saw through it, but political bystanders got offended. Kryzan got her message out and disenchanted voters flocked to her. Davis’ negative attacks worked against Powers and for Kryzan.
Lessons for everyone I suppose.
- Define yourself and don’t let your opponent define you
- Do not underestimate your opponent (s) .
- Don’t over estimate the voters either - find a message that works and get that message out.
- Oh, if you are a supporter, worker, volunteer - don’t take anything for granted and get out of any bubble you might be in and know that the other side is doing what it can to win. Make that extra call, drop the extra lit or coin and know that only until the votes are counted will we know who wins.
I also believe that Kryzan has the capability of winning in November. There is the anti-Republican trend and she’s not stained by the negative ads of the past few months.. The bigger question is money and will former Powers workers flock to her and support her activities in the next 50 odd days.
Still Currently as grecianblue points out
- Kryzan in on the Dem Line
- Powers in on the WFP line
- Davis is on the Independent line (Ghost of Murrow begs to differ)-
So, who knows? I expect Davis not to be on the Independent line (need to confirm) and Powers not to actively campaign. Either way, any Dem would have had their work cut out for them
Also let’s remember that Primary’s are there for a reason. Mayor Duffy ran a primary (Wade Norwood was the endorsed candidate) so the endorsed candidate doesn’t always win.
Related posts:
The boys committed a murder-suicide.
It’s said that people use negative campaigns because they work. But, do they work in a three way race? In a two-way, when one throws a punch, the other usually punches back resulting in a negative campaign for both candidates. One is forced to win and then can claim that negative campaigns work.
In this case, no one saw Alice coming. They wrote her off. The reality is, no one threw any mud at her and she was smart to let them beat each other up and stay clean.
We can armchair quarter-back all we want, but the end result is that Kryzan is the Democratic candidate and if we don’t lick our wounds and support her, Chris Lee WILL win.
PS. Alice keeping clean during this primary gives Chris Lee a lot more work to do. The boys already did all the work beating each other up. Lee would have had a walk in the park.
[...] old favorite, Rochester Turning, has this take on the NY-26 [...]
Right - now Alice needs to reach out to Powers’ people and recruit them.
Absolutely agree - Lee has his oppo research cut out for him
Well, I didn’t agree with Airbare at the time. But I guess he was right about Powers and Davis….but maybe Kryzan can make this a race.
Chris Lee’s angling for a regressive Forbesian flat tax with his “simplify the tax code” talk. Bridges are falling down and we have 200k homeless vets and he’s concern trolling about “spending”
I still didn’t really expect the result of tonight. You did well on CW, by the way.
Also, Davis in definitely off the ballot (consult SwingStateProject and the NYS Board of Election). I wonder if Powers will request that his name be removed from the WFP line- I think he should, but I don’t know if the Board will allow him to.
[...] Turning asks what happened? I’m gonna give my thoughts and answer the [...]
I can’t imagine her winning me.
I’ve been a big Powers supporter, both on blogs and in real life. I’ve got no problem saying that Alice is a Democrat with a big “D”. Not my first choice in the primary, but ultimately our Democratic choice.
Life is tough. Helmets and chinstraps are cheap. Buy one of each, strap ‘em on, and get back in the f’n game.
Same here. I had one occasion to make her acquaintance and found her a bit unpleasant.
PERFECTLY said
I don’t think you’re allowed to get your name off the ballot at this point in time.
Easier said than done for some Powers supporters– he’s been working with and inspiring the grassroots for over a year. I think we at least owe them a little time to grieve.
That said, I’m sure Chris Lee will not give them the same courtesy.
I didn’t see any sense of a Kryzan campaign in this neck of the woods, but maybe she’s got a good network of supporters in Erie County to start her off.
There’s to be said about Kryzan being a woman and riding on the Hillary - Palin passions. Just a thought…
Oops - There is something to be said….
It’s early, can’t type or think!
Her election result numbers say otherwise. 42% in Monroe in a three way race is impressive.
That didn’t seem to work so well for Hillary. I think this is more an “anti-establishment” year for voters than it is a “women” year.
Palin’s appeal is that she is unknown, not in Congress and Alaska is so removed distance-wise that people see her as the anti-Washington Republican. Palin and Kryzan couldn’t be farther apart from each other politically. Once Palin’s archaeic and Bushian views are exposed, here’s hoping the American people are smart enough to see that she is not what they think she is. If being a woman wins elections this year, we might as well say good-bye to the White House because that’s all Palin has going for her.
Kryzan is an intelligent and strong person with much more progressive views than Lee. She may be a woman, but if that is her only reason for winning, it’s no reason at all for her to win in November.
I mean volunteers rather than voters.
As of the last time I checked the WFP didn’t actually put Powers on their petitions but a place holder for just this eventuality. I don’t believe he will attempt to maintain his position on that line.
More on the Indy line from BuffaloPundit:
But Orsini acknowledged that Fumerelle could end up “holding the line” until September, when he could receive an Independence nomination for State Supreme Court and be replaced with a major party candidate.
The chairman said the uncertainity surrounding the Democratic primary for the seat of retiring Republican incumbent Thomas M. Reynolds of Clarence forces the party into taking advantage of election law technicalities until after the September intra-party contest.
“It’s too much of a mess out there,” Orsini said, referring to the four-way race Democratic race. “We don’t know who is going to win the Democratic primary.”
He added the party wishes to avoid a general election like last year’s for county executive, when the line was largely ignored after Independence leaders endorsed former West Seneca Supervisor Paul T. Clark, only to see Clark lose the primary to former Deputy County Executive James P. Keane.
“We don’t want to see the line wasted,” Orsini said.
I pulled info on contributions on Fumerelle. If he is on the line, he may get my vote since he donated $250 to John Edwards in 2004, but he doesn’t live in the district. Alice, I heard on this blog had donated to Reynolds. Checked the FEC listing under individual search and sure enough on 11/2/2000, Alice had a 250.00 check for Tom Reynolds’ campaign. Hmmmm something to think about. If Jack gets the Indy line after the bribe mess then the Indy party will carry the weight of a joke party in future elections.
The negative tactics that were used in the Hoyt/Kavanaugh Assembly race were very visible, and I think the result here and in that race can be attributed in part to a rejection of that sort of tactic. The 26th is a district that has been poised for change for the past two cycles, and people finally got a candidate that they could vote for with a clear conscious. I think Lee has a fight on his hands, and I think Kryzan, who is very capable, good well win this race. You know that the national party will be putting money into it– and they should.
[...] the primary, Powers lost. Other news outfits offered these headlines and we offered the first, initial analysis certainly not definitive. Questioned Powers’ statement that he was considering a run on the [...]