DfE: County Leg Races Analysis
Dragonfly has a good rundown of the seats up for grabs this year.
The Dems need 3 seats to swing the Legislature’s majority. Three out of four, in other words. There is also the question of Palumbo, which might mean that they need to pick up four out of five. Mathematically, this is possible, but it’s a stretch. It will be interesting watching this race develop, and I suspect a fair amount will be affected by the Executive race, to the detriment of the Dems, I’m afraid.
That remains to be seen– if the Dems end up fielding a candidate against her, all bets are off. In many races, at least at the national level, even a popular GOP incumbant’s re-election numbers start to fall once a Dem challenger appears and voters realize they have a choice.
Plus, the Brooks administration has a lot of baggage. In our anecdotal experience, people who start out saying “Oh, I love Maggie” end up troubled when reminded of the Water Authority scandal, budgetary “fun with numbers”, etc. This is why she leaves no photo-op unturned. As long as the local press allows folks to forget about all the bad stuff that’s happened, her re-election will be that much easier.
Cut to the scene where we explain why we’re here. 
BTW, check out DfE’s whole post, interesting analysis there.
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Unless there has been some major announcement since the Democratic convention there are still a number of county legislature seats the Dems are not challenging. Why? This web page has pointed out as an example of someone not deserving re-election (Dan Quatro) but, as of today at least, there is no challenger for the Republican incumbent in the 15th LD. Dan (The Invisible Man) Quatro isn’t even known to the majority of his constituents. The only reason he won the last time is because he ran unopposed. Come on Morelle your party can take back control of county government but first you need to run some viable candidates; which includes someone for County Executive. Who is the Democratic Party’s choice for that office?
Check my hyperlinked name above to see the article where I update on Mrs. Palumbo. If she succeeds in the NW City race (which she almost certainly will), an interim replacement will be put in until the next election for that position (which is, I believe, 2008). So no, they don’t need to add in that next candidate.
As to the question of why the Dems aren’t running, well, my sources have told me that they may in fact pick up a few for those races. And no, the reason that Quatro has won in the past is not strictly because there isn’t an opponent: there isn’t an opponent because those districts have a tendency to be highly-red districts. I agree that you should run a “29-District Strategy,” but that isn’t always possible in these small races where everybody knows everybody else, I don’t think.
Quatro’s district includes a portion of the Town of Brighton, which has voted Democratic in the past, along with Penfield and Webster. While those two towns might be considered “red” areas, referring to being Republican, it doesen’t matter what party a candidate represents if they don’t bother to meet with their constituents.Quatro is an unknown entity to many people living in the 15 LD which has earned him the title “Dan the Invisible Man.” What is really upsetting is that this “do-nothing” legislator is being considered to replace Bill Smith as Majority Leader. Why? The guy just shows up to meetings and sits there. A trained monkey could do the same thing minus the medical benefits and financial perks Quatro receives as one of Minarik’s minions.Talk about a waste of tax dollars, this guy figures that some county employees writing his speeches, and Minarik’s mailings will get his re-elected, makes me sick to my stomach. At least the late Ray Santirocco would go door-to-door and meet with residents to listen to their concerns and answer questions. Personally I think Quatro needs a road map just to find his way home at night.