I’d like to revisit our earlier video about Dale Sweetland’s claims about oil prices. Sweetland seems to be claiming that by “saying we’re going to drill”, we can lower the price of oil futures substantially. But that’s just not true because (1) it takes about 5-10 years for the new sites to start producing large quantities of oil and (2) the quantities probably won’t be large enough to put a significant dent in oil price. To wit, we’ve seen estimates that opening up ANWR to drilling would probably only lower the price of gas by about 75 cents per barrel. There is simply no way that “saying we’re going drill” is the reason crude prices have dropped 15 bucks a barrel over the past weeks. The much more likely causes of of this drop, as commenter GhostOfMurrow points out, are increased production from Saudi Arabia and a decrease in demand (which is a natural reaction, of course, to higher prices).

Along these lines, the Messenger-Post has an editorial up about Kuhl’s ridiculous ideas about lowering the price of oil by 2 bucks a gallon. The title says it all “Never mind those oil experts.”

Can anyone else make sense of this statement from Dale Sweetland?

Five weeks ago, I made the statement ‘We don’t even need to drill. We just need to say we are going to drill and we are going to use our own resources.’ Because of that, over the past 10 days the price for a barrel of oil has gone down $16. “

We should have a video of this up soon.

Update: Here’s the video.

Today Democratic candidates for Congress Dan Maffei (NY-25), Jon Powers (NY-26) and Eric Massa (NY-29) teamed up to encourage national service through public service jobs in America.  They gathered in front of Greece Arcadia High School alongside fellow Democrats Rick Dollinger, candidate for State Senate in the 56th District (website coming soon), and Dick Beebe, County Legislator.  Paul Riordan, candidate for Supreme Court Judge, was also in attendance, as were about 20 local teachers and nurses in a show of support for Maffei, Powers and Massa.  It was raining a bit so I left my camera in the car, my apologies.

Powers began, noting that both he and his mother are teachers, and that his policy of national service, A Call To Service, is about “re-engaging our country.”

Here, excerpts:

Like the recent G.I Bill rewarding our men and women in uniform for their service and providing educational funding, we must launch a Professional Public Service Program similar to ROTC, encouraging high school and college aged citizens to enter service professions. As America faces shortages in critical occupations, we must reward training and public service into professions that serve our public good but are often overlooked for lacking financial incentive. Helping and recruiting our region’s best talent will ensure secure, long-term jobs here in Western New York.

Fields targeted for enhancement are nursing, teaching and social work.  Powers also advocated for vocational programs, apprenticeships and mentoring.  Additionally, he called for increasing both AmeriCorps and the Peace Corps enrollment.  It’s an ambitious program and worth reading in full at the above link.

Massa, who has 24 years of public service, advocated reinvesting “in our work force locally by using state and federal programs to forgive student loans over time for graduates that choose to take public service jobs here in Western New York.  Kind of like a domestic GI bill, but instead of serving in the military you can serve here at home.”  He also advocated creating an economic development zone much like North Carolina’s Research Triangle.

Massa went on to say we must “stop leaving college students behind and shipping jobs to China.  It’s all a matter of teamwork,” pointing to Maffei, Powers and Dollinger standing beside him.

Maffei, for his part, referenced Abe Lincoln’s First Inaugural Address phrase “Angels of our better nature,” stating that “Just like Abe Lincoln’s ‘angels of our better nature,’ we must stand and fight and be a part of this community where we’re needed.”  He called out President Bush’s tactics by contrast such as when America was attacked on September 11th and the president told us to show our patriotism by going shopping.  Maffei instead pointed to JFK’s “Ask not what your country can do for you” speech and noted that both of his parents were social workers.  He also pointed out that he, Powers and Massa will be leaders of the next Congress, not just members.

Rick Dollinger then spoke, stating that “In 1932 America elected a president who couldn’t walk (FDR) but he put America back to work.”  He then referenced the great work of JFK and Bill Clinton in terms of public service and the economy.  Dollinger went on to say “Those three presidents and these three gentlemen,” pointing to Maffei, Powers and Massa, “have one thing in common: they’re all Democrats.”

The crowd erupted in applause.

Jon Powers noted “Americans are ready to serve, they just need Washington to help make it possible.”  He referenced biotech and greentech jobs and the easing of college debt, stating that we need to “keep our best, brightest and talented right here.”

Massa concluded by saying “All we want is a playing field where we can solve our own problems.  Everybody should serve somewhere.”  He then noted the teamwork the three of them could employ with Louise Slaughter as a “Rochester caucus.”  Massa noted “None of us are shrinking violets.  The four of us will have a very loud and clear voice.”

Maffei concluded by saying “We also want to offer non-financial incentives for joining the military,” noting there is an increased need for Americans to help our veterans, not only from the Iraq and Afghanistan wars but also from Korea and Vietnam.

Powers concluded the press conference by saying “Military service taught me to serve my country and to continue that service.  There are other ways to serve, teaching, nursing…[We have] a once-in-a-generation chance for change.”

Dale Sweetland, the Republican candidate in NY-25, just came in with his 2Q fundraising numbers –107K raised in the quarter 133K raised in the quarter I let you know about his cash on hand when I find out with 107K cash on hand. Recall that his Democratic opponent Dan Maffei raised 475K in the quarter and has nearly a million on hand.

Sweetland numbers are terrible, worse than expected and expectations were low.

Airbare recently gave us an excellent summary of how New York State Congressional races are increasingly seen as pick-up opportunities for Democrats. There’s more movement in that direction today: afater the Maffei campaign announced its fundraising totals yesterday, Congressional Quarterly just moved NY-25 into the “leans Democrat” category, writing “Maffei’s fundraising advantage and exposure has led CQ Politics to change its rating on the race to Leans Democrat from No Clear Favorite.”

Update: I missed this nugget on Maffei’s opponent, Dale Sweetland, the first time through: “Rapp estimated that Sweetland had raised nearly $130,000 in the past month, but did not have a number for the campaign’s total fundraising.” If Sweetland comes in much under $250,000 for the quarter, he’s all but gone.

These are big numbers (from a press release — no link yet):

• A total of more than $1.3 million raised through June 30, 2008;
• A total of more than $470,000 raised from April 1 through June 30, 2008 (put in perspective, the previous record total quarter for Maffei was $369,000 in the last quarter of 2006);
• A total of more than $950,000 cash on hand;

Maffei is also up on the air with ads in Rochester and Syracuse.

Update: These numbers and the fact that the Maffei campaign is the first NYS Democrat running general election ads on television is the lead story on the Crypt at the Politico right now.

A few of the nonpartisan political websites released their latest congressional race ratings before the holiday weekend, and they all had good news:

• The Cook Political Report moved their ratings for the NY-13 and NY-25 congressional districts, which are both currently held by Republicans, from Toss-up to Lean Democratic.

• Congressional Quarterly also moved their rating for NY-13, where Staten Island Republicans are still scrambling to find a candidate, from No Clear Favorite to Democrat Favored.

• Meanwhile, the Rothenberg Political Report upgraded NY-13 from Pure Toss-up to Toss-up/Tilt Democratic.

If these ratings are accurate (they were very accurate in 2006) and the election was held today, Democrats would pick up both the 13th and 25th districts. We would also have a good chance of winning the 26th and 29th districts, where Democratic candidates Jon Powers and Eric Massa are running, respectively. It’s a long way even to the conventions and we have months to go before election day, but things keep looking better and better.

Like all of you, I was beyond disappointed last week when House Democrats caved once again, this time giving up on the Bill of Rights. (Actually, they caved twice last week if you include their blank check for the Iraq War.)

We all know that the war is unpopular, but less well known is the fact that a clear majority of Americans also oppose amnesty for telecoms that break the law. And with the president’s approval rating lower than that of Richard Nixon just before he resigned, I think there are only two possible explanations for why so many Democrats did what they did. Either they truly thought it was a good bill (in which case they don’t care about civil liberties) or they were afraid of the big bad Republicans trying to make them look soft on terror. I don’t know which is worse, but I think most of them fit into the latter category based on their past statements about FISA.

With that in mind, I set out to learn what the three local Democrats running for Congress had to say about the issue, and I was let down once again. In fact, I was originally going to entitle this post “Local Candidates Strong on the Constitution.” I will go through each of the three candidates in order of congressional district.

Dan Maffei (NY-25):

I dug through his entire website and couldn’t find a single statement on FISA, telecoms, the Bill of Rights, or anything even broadly related to civil liberties. The issues section of his website (”Where I Stand”) has listed only four things: middle class relief, energy costs, Iraq, and healthcare. His latest press release, issued on June 19th, was to notify the media that his website now includes the “ExxonMobil 2008 Big Oil Profit Counter” which allows you to see in real time how much you’re being ripped off at the gas pump.

Jon Powers (NY-26):

Not much better. The latest news is about his opposition to oil drilling and while he has more issues listed than Maffei, none of them have to do with the topic at hand.

Eric Massa (NY-29):

Finally, someone says something. He mentions only the Electronic Surveillance Modernization Act of September 2006 and the “Protect America” Act of August 2007, but what he says about them is very encouraging, to say the least:

Had I been in Congress during the 109th and 110th sessions, I would have opposed both of these bills and when I am elected, I will actively oppose ANY assaults on our Fourth Amendment. When I was in the Navy, I swore an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution and I did not surrender that promise when I retired.

It is so true how he calls it “our Fourth Amendment.” Based on this unequivocal statement, I think it’s safe to assume that he would have opposed the latest incarnation of what is essentially the same attack on the Bill of Rights.

It is long past time that all of our elected politicians — and especially Democrats — realize that the choice that we are being given between liberty and security is, and always will be, a false choice. Our country will forever be worse off because of the decisions that have been made in the last seven and a half years. Republicans have rushed to deploy any number of useless tactics in the war on terror as they have shown a wanton disregard for anything in the Constitution that contradicts their preconceived notions of what will defeat the terrorists. Far too many Democrats, meanwhile, have been complacent or have actively gone along with the abolishment of our rights.

Overall, I think that these local Democratic candidates should be more vocal in their press releases and on their websites — two critical parts of getting their messages out — when it comes to the issue of FISA.

Dale Sweetland (the Republican candidate in NY-25) emerged from hiding today to talk to the press about gas prices. Sweetland is in favor of a gas tax holiday even though his own county’s experiments with gas taxes showed they had no effect on prices. Sweetland also seemed to suggest that a tax on windfall profits at gas companies would raise gas prices, which is a bit nonsensical since a tax on profits only kicks in once the profits have been made.

It’s fair to say that everything Sweetland favors when it comes to oil policy is exactly what the big oil companies favor (he also favors drilling in ANWR). Here he is on how we should look for ways to lower oil prices without cutting into the profits of Big Oil:

“Almost 25 percent of what we pay today goes to someone other than the oil companies. And we could lower those taxes and that would be short-term relief.”

By contrast, here’s Democrat Dan Maffei (who favors a windfall tax and opposes the gas tax holiday):

“The solution has to be we have to stand up to the big oil companies. We can’t just continue to do what they want, but we have to stand up to them. They’ve earned over $1,200 in profit for every second of the last year.”

For the record, I doubt that any of the proposals I’m hearing right now will have an important long-term effect, but it is troubling when a candidate like Sweetland seems more interested in protecting the interests of Big Oil than anything else.

This morning, on the Today Show, John McCain said that he believed that bringing the troops home from Iraq was “not too important”. In fairness, the context was that he said what mattered was that casualties were low for them while they served in Iraq. Nevertheless, it’s a controversial statement — most Americans don’t want troops stationed over there permanently.

Democrats have acted with remarkable speed to this gaffe. The DCCC just hit Randy Kuhl with this press release:

“Senator John McCain’s comment that it is ‘not too important’ when our troops come home is a stunning reminder of the stay-the-course policies supported by Representative Randy Kuhl, who has consistently voted against measures to change course in Iraq. After nearly a trillion dollars spent and thousands of our men and women having already made the ultimate sacrifice in Iraq, Representative Kuhl’s constituents deserve to know whether a vote for him is a vote for the same approach in Iraq supported by President Bush and Senator McCain,” said Doug Thornell, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “The American people simply can’t afford Representative Kuhl’s out of touch views and commitment to the status quo for another two years.”

You can watch the YouTube clip of McCain’s statements below for context:

I’d like to make a couple points about McCain’s statement. While he always says that his hundred year, thousand year, million year occupation of Iraq would be a peaceful one a la South Korea or Germany. But there’s two problems with this:

• 1. It isn’t clear that such a peaceful occupation is possible. Iraq isn’t Korea or Germany.
• 2. Large scale peaceful operations still cost a lot of money.

While Republicans will say that McCain meant something else or that this isn’t fair or whatever, the fact is: John McCain — and Randy Kuhl and Chris Lee and Dale Sweetland and the rest — all should have to explain what they mean by “peaceful occupation”, why they think one is possible and beneficial, and how much it will all cost. That’s only fair.

Dale Sweetland, who is running for congress in the NY25th, believes drilling in the Alaskan wildlife refuge is a good idea:

OSWEGO, NY (2008-05-23) Retiring Congressman Jim Walsh says he now supports drilling for oil in the Alaskaarctic National Wildlife Refuge after years of opposing the idea. Dan Maffei,the Democrat who wants to succeed Walsh, calls it a bad idea. But Republican candidate Dale Sweetland supports it. Sweetland spoke to WRVO’s Chris Ulanowski.

You can follow the link and listen to it on WRVO.

Last week, Exile wrote about the “brilliance” (insert tongue in cheek here) of this candidate , where he talked about the Iraq war. Now he shows us a little piece of his energy/environmental stance.

Call me crazy, but I don’t think this is going to garner him any extra votes in a predominantly Democratic district.

Every now and then, I have to throw in an obscure movie reference in the title of a post…

Even longtime observers of Randy Kuhl’s contortions and distortions about Iraq will be impressed with Republican candidate Dale Sweetland’s (the frontrunner fo the Republican nomination in NY-25) lack of candor about Iraq-related issues:

Sweetland, then chairman of the Legislature, was absent when it voted 12-6 along party lines in 2002 to indefinitely table the anti-war resolution.

“It was one of the very rare times I missed a (Legislature) session,” Sweetland said Friday. “As far as I know, I was ill or out of town for my regular job.”

[...]

On April 3, at a news conference outside his Fabius home, Sweetland said, “The war in Iraq is a shame. If I had been in Congress at the time, I probably wouldn’t have voted to go to Iraq.”

[...]

The House also voted to expand educational benefits for returning G.I.s by increasing taxes on individuals with income over $500,000.

Sweetland declined to say specifically if he supports the House bill.

He said he’d like to see U.S. troops pulled out of Iraq tomorrow, but said a withdrawal realistically can’t be quickly accomplished.

“If somehow people think the way to force the withdrawal is to not fund supplies and equipment to the troops, that’s the wrong thing to do,” Sweetland said.

I guess this is what Republicans call “straight talk”. Most voters have another word for it.

From the Post-Standard:

Republican congressional candidate Dale Sweetland’s campaign picked up steam Monday as his most formidable Republican opponent, Assemblyman Bob Oaks, withdrew from the race and endorsed him.

Sweetland also pocketed the endorsement of the man he hopes to succeed - 10-term incumbent Rep. James Walsh, R-Onondaga.

Never fear, though, punk rock fans: David Gay is still in the race.

Walsh urged two other Republicans, David Gay and Mark-Paul Serafin, to withdraw from the race.

Serafin and Gay said Monday they will continue campaigning. Neither has ruled out forcing a Republican primary election.

Update: btp here. Overheard, music playing at Gay’s campaign HQ:

 Rise above, we’re gonna rise above

We’re sick, and tired, of your, abuse

Try and stop us, it’s no use

Dan Maffei has said that he would return the money immediately. A lending company who has been preying on senior citizens had donated a substantial amount to Maffei’s campaign. This, from The Post Standard:

Maffei’s campaign said it will refund the money to four employees of Upstate Capital Inc., a reverse mortgage lender with headquarters on Basile Rowe in East Syracuse.

Upstate Capital took advantage of seniors statewide through false advertising and portraying itself to be a nonprofit organization, according to state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. He announced a settlement with the company Thursday in which Upstate Capital agreed to reform its marketing practices and make clear that it is a mortgage/reverse mortgage broker.

[snip]

Daniel Krupnick, Maffei’s campaign manager in Syracuse, said the campaign decided it was best to return the money, even though there were no charges of wrongdoing involving the contributions.

The site’s slow right now so I’m not going to link to our previous coverage about this but I just read this on the Washington Post site:

Add retiring Rep. James Walsh (N.Y.) to the list of Republican lawmakers who now believe they were ripped off by Christopher Ward, the former treasurer of multiple GOP campaigns who is under federal investigation for allegedly embezzling funds from the National Republican Congressional Committee.

On April 14, Walsh’s political action committee, COLDPAC, filed six amended reports with the Federal Election Commission covering much of 2007. Why? The answer can be found in the PAC’s amended report for last April, which includes a $20,000 disbursement to Ward for “Misappropriated Funds.”

Walsh’s PAC is at least the sixth GOP committee to report that Ward took funds, and he appears to be the biggest individual victim measured by dollar amount (not counting the NRCC), so far in the scandal. Committees connected to GOP Reps. Charles Dent (Pa.), Vito Fossella (N.Y.), Jeb Hensarling (Texas) and a moderate Republican group have also reported having funds taken by Ward.