Check out coverage of the Mississippi special election.

The Swing State Project is all over it. Their live thread is pretty good - check it out.

You may have heard about an old Republican poll the NRCC is pushing in which Kuhl leads Massa by a wide margin. F29th is all over this ploy (here; here). I guess I’d point out as well that the sample size is extremely small — 300 voters, which gives a margin of error of plus/minus 6 points for each candidate. In effect, that amounts to a 12 point margin of error on the gap between the two candidates. I’ve often wondered if campaigns sometimes run a bunch of small sample polls, then pick the one that is most favorable to them for press releases. I suspect that they do.

Sean Carroll has more on this.

There’s another special election today, the run-off in Mississippi’s first Congressional district. The Democratic candidate — Travis Childers — nearly won 50% of the vote the first time around but came up just short, bringing about a run-off election. The district is extremely conservative (it went 62% for Bush in 2004), but the race is neck-and-neck:

After losing two special elections in conservative-minded districts over the past two months, the GOP is now at risk of losing a seat in the heart of the Deep South — and is pouring all its resources into hanging on to it, including a rare campaign trail appearance by Vice President Cheney on Monday.

A third loss in Tuesday’s 1st District special election would prompt new predictions of electoral doom in November, hurt the party’s already flagging morale and usher in a new round of public finger-pointing among an already fractured GOP

It’s becoming like a broken record, more and more bad news for Congressional Republicans.  The weakness of NYS Congressional Republicans, and the very real possibility that Democrats will pick up as many as four House seats in New York State, is the biggest political story of 2008 locally.

Fighting29th highlights something rather interesting:

Reader Elmer sends today’s Corning Leader Opinion Page [pdf], which contains an op-ed from Randy Kuhl and a letter from Eric Massa.

Kuhl’s op-ed is a protest of the Democrats’ plan to bring the Iraq Supplemental up for a vote without committee action or much meaningful debate. At one point in the op-ed, Kuhl compares Nancy Pelosi’s conduct with that of “oppressive regimes”.

Congressional procedure issues are of little or no interest to most voters, so it is rather strange that Kuhl would devote so much space to it, but the underlying debate here is quite interesting Good government types (like me) were appalled by the manner in which Republicans ran the House when they were in charge. Thus, I tend to sympathize with complaints about heavy-handed majority rule, though it’s tough to have too much sympathy when House Republican leaders ask Democrats to “treat us as they would liked to have been treated.”

In any case, the Iraq debate is not like other debates. Bush and McCain want the United States to stay in Iraq for the foreseeable future — for as many as a million years, according to McCain — and Congressional Republicans have pulled out every trick in the book to help make sure this happens. Congressional Democrats have erred on the side of compromise — some might call it “caving in” — on this issue. I support any efforts to get tough with Republicans about redeployment from Iraq. And I think most Americans feel the same way.

Late last week Maggie Brooks sent me an unsolicited email promoting her budget survey. I didn’t even know Monroe County had my email address. After a while I recalled that I had registered (several years ago) on the Monroe County site to get access to some property info when I was house-hunting. This is the first time they’ve sent me an email.

RT has discussed this survey before. I believe it’s just a heavy-handed attempt to make people to buy into a sales tax increase, by making it the most appealing option. The lengths Maggie’s going through to publicize the survey are surprising as well — sending unsolicited SPAM. (Side comment: I ALWAYS check the “don’t SPAM me” check-box when registering on a site, so either there wasn’t one or it was ignored in this case).

Maggie Brooks looks to be going down the same path of self-destruction as Joel Giambra, Erie County Executive from 1999 to 2007. Giambra pulled similar stunts that seriously damaged Erie County and ended his political career.

Giambra, like Maggie, pledged to never increase property taxes. After years of budget one-shots and misuse of tobacco settlement money to artificially keep property taxes low, Giambra ran out of gimmicks (just like the FAIR plan was Maggie’s last, best gimmick). Similarly, he tried to play the “I need to raise the sales tax a penny” card and also failed, so he implemented most or all of the items in Maggie’s Survey List #1 in his infamous “Red Budget” in early 2005.

I lived in the Buffalo area during this time and can tell you first hand that this level of mismanagement made him exceptionally unpopular, put the county into a crisis mode, caused a number of county leg members to get tossed in the next election, and eventually put Erie County under the management of a State Control Board — all because Giambra refused to raise property tax. I see Maggie going in these same failed directions — the parallels are remarkable. I hope Monroe County doesn’t eventually end up in a situation with a Control Board as well. That’s something that literally takes decades to recover from (in bond markets, financial ratings and such).

So Maggie, please don’t be another Joel. Monroe Country can’t afford it.

Liz Benjamin has a great rundown of all the angles on the Fossella story over at Daily Politics. The bottom line is that Fossella is resisting calls to step down or at least decline to seek reelection. It seems to me that there’s no way he can win in November so the Republicans need to get him out as quickly as possible.

Anyway, there’s a lot of good stuff, so much that I don’t have time to summarize it. So just go over to Daily Politics if you’re as into this story as I am.

Looks like co-sleeping is back in the news again with a blog post by Rachel Barnhart at 13wham.com, now with a Public Campaign against it and PSAs on Youtube. I did a piece on this awhile back, but it’s time to revisit and get the facts straight, Mam.

Here’s the PSA:

watch?v=MPF_IA8Qbk4

What, exactly were the circumstances surrounding these “43″ deaths? Were the parents smokers?, intoxicated?, obese?, under the influence of medications? Was the baby even in the bed with a parent, or was it a sibling, or was the baby in the adult bed alone?

Now, how many babies died in cribs last year, away from their parents? Why is that statistic not provided?

It’s probably not provided, because it is not known. Take a look at this article:

Susan Honaker of Sterling Heights, Mich., lost her 3-week-old son, Evan, in May 2005.”He was totally healthy, two weeks early. He had been lying beside me. I woke up and found him gone at about 9 in the morning,” she said.

“I called for six weeks straight trying to find out why he died, and they put me off that they were waiting for such and such to come back. Finally they put on the death certificate: ‘Accidental suffocation due to hazardous sleeping environment.’ “

“The coroner told me flat-out: ‘If you’d found him in a crib, I would have called it SIDS, but since he was laying with you, I put this.’ But there was no evidence from the autopsy or the bedding that he suffocated. I’ve done a lot of research since then, and they don’t know,” Honaker said.

Here’s a news flash in response to the PSA: “Babies don’t do anything better alone. Babies are meant to be with their mothers. They don’t have the mechanisms in their brains to soothe themselves, so alone is not such a good idea.”

Update: Rachel has reported on the new findings, without saying “yay”, or “nay” on the issue itself. I’m just trying to get to the extenuating circumstances surrounding the deaths. Until they are uncovered, the PSAs will continue to instill fear into new parents, possibly unfounded.

Gee, they grow up awfully fast don’t they. I’m talking about candidates. I got a letter yesterday from the Obama campaign.

Prepaid envelope, A letter from Obama, a support letter from Ted Kennedy, a form looking for an email address and a donation and time to volunteer.

Obama Mailer

I must say I was impressed as this was unexpected. I haven’t signed up for any Obama lists. Haven’t attended any meetings, haven’t donated. Nope, nothing. Ultimately, I will but up to now I haven’t.

Sounds like someone is learning to finish off Clinton in her own backyard of New York State.

What I got from Obama was a professional, targeted fund raising piece that was looking for money and volunteers. It was sent to New York State - Hillary’s back yard. it is the first piece of lit I received from either candidate since New Yorks super Tuesday.

It might be time to reread this piece I wrote about Jeffrey Feldman’s observations last February.

Sounds like someone is growing up awlfully fast.

Anyone else get these? I’m guessing they went out to prime Dems but who knows.

Now, Vito Fossella is saying he won’t get out of the race (for NY-13) after all! I still say he’s out by midweek. Blowing a point one seven and then getting bailed out by your baby mama — while your wife’s back in New York — is political suicide.

I will say this, though: Vito could probably stick it out and make it til November (where he’d lose, of course) were it not for the increasingly dire straights House Republicans are facing. But the House Republican leadership is under the gun and can’t afford to give away the seat. The Washington Post has an article about how NRCC head Tom Cole may get sacked if Democrats win Tuesday’s special election in Mississippi.

The stakes in the 1st District special election couldn’t be higher, strategically or symbolically. The loss of a traditionally GOP seat to a Democrat would be the third in a special election this spring and the second in the Deep South after the May 3 victory of Rep. Don Cazayoux (D-La.).

Rank-and-file Republicans say that would force a day of reckoning for their leadership.

“When you connect three dots in anything, that’s a bad thing. This connects the dots. At that point, everybody’s got to come together and have a come-to-Jesus meeting,” said Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), a retiring centrist who will help form a new advisory panel at the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Surveying the local landscape, I’ve wondered for weeks why Kuhl raises so little money and why the Republicans can’t get better candidates in NY-25 and NY-29. I don’t wonder about that anymore. Democrats hold every advantage in House races going into the fall. If you’re a local progressive who’s interested in changing the make-up of the House, there’s never been a better time to get involved in the process.

I’d also like to add some funny commentary from some House Republicans about all of this:

“When Bush tries to articulate a vision,” Davis said, pausing to choose his words carefully, “he will butcher the Gettysburg Address. Obama, he will make an A&P grocery list sing.”

[…]

I don’t want to tap dance ‘The Good Ship Lollipop,’ ” he (Rep. Jeb Hensarling) said. “But I don’t want to crawl into a fetal position.”

WOW - did anyone check out the Political Cartoon on D&C op-ed page? It was done by John Sherffius of Copley news. Sorry I can’t link to the pictures directly but click over and check out his work. All of his work.

Next time you are talking to presidential fence sitters - remind them about the Supreme Court.

The Town of Brighton in partnership with Maven Technologies is collecting old computer monitors and other electronic waste next Saturday May 17. Drop off as much as you want or need to. Here are the details

Address: 1941 Elmwood Avenue
Location: Brighton Highway Department
Hours: 9:00 am - 1:00 pm
Contact: (585) 458-2460
Cost: Free ($5 for TVs)

Remember it is at the Brighton Highway department NOT the Town Hall.

If you have stuff to drop off that is great, but even better is for you to ask your friends and make arrangements with them to get their surplus/obsolete ewaste to the event on Saturday. It is not that hard - just ask.

I’ll be reminding you during the week.

Everyone has a Mother with the possible exception of MIchael Savage, so here is wishng you and yours a wonderful Mother’s day.

The D&C had a write-up about gold star mothers. A club that, ideallly, should have no members.

You can also read about our local electeds commenting on Motherhood. Clinton, Frankel, Dixon, Brooks, Saintiago, Slaughter, Heyman.

What are you doing today?

http://ktracy.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/dean.JPG

National Democratic Chair, Dr Howard Dean will be coming to Rochester for a reception to support our favorite Democratic candidate for the 29th congressional district, Eric Massa!

Here’s the scoop:

When: Thursday, May 15th, 2008

Where: The Inn on Broadway

26 Broadway, Rochester, NY

How Much: VIP Reception: 5:00-5:30 PM $1000.00

Reception: 5:30-7:00 AM $250.00

RSVP: Maryanne Hamilton email:

mhamilton@massaforcongress.com

About six months ago, many people who supported Edwards and Obama started telling me that Edwards and Obama were much stronger general election candidates than Hillary. Over the past few weeks, I’ve been hearing from Hillary supporters that they think Hillary is a stronger general election candidate than Obama. The reasons cited in all cases were a combination of qualitative reasons — Candidate X has a stronger appeal to Group Y than Candidate Z — and polling data. What’s interesting with polling data is that Hillary and Obama have both done pretty much the same in trial heats over the past six months. There have been times at which Obama polled four points higher (on average) than Hillary in trial general election heats and other times when Hillary polled as much as 3 points higher than Obama (again on average) in trial election heats. Right now, Hillary is polling 2.7 points higher than Obama in trial election heats. You can see all the data here for Hillary and here for Obama. Of course, four months ago, Hillary had been coming of a string of, oh, 15 years of negative treatment from the media, while right now Obama has been getting smeared (maybe “flag pinned” would be more accurate) for the past two months. And when the flag pinning fades into memory, Obama’s poll numbers will probably go right back up relative to Hillary’s (assuming they’re both still in the race).

The bottom line is that there isn’t that much difference between Hillary and Obama in terms of political potential. And it’s a mistake to focus on the personal attributes of candidates at a time when there are larger forces — much larger — working in favor of progressives. John Harris and Jim VandeHei of the Politico have a good piece about this fact in the Politico today:

Things are so bad that many people don’t even want to call themselves Republicans. The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press has found the lowest percentage of self-described Republicans in 16 years of polling.

[…]

For now, Republicans are heartened by how well McCain sometimes does in head-to-head polling with Barack Obama, the likely Democratic nominee. But it’s silly to watch those numbers: They fluctuate and reflect nothing more than momentary feelings about the candidates, and they come at a time when public attention is fixed on the final rounds of the Democratic slugfest.

[…]

It’s so toxic, some Republicans are pointing to 1976 as a favorable historical comparison. That was the year Gerald Ford ran in the dark shadows of Watergate and lost to Jimmy Carter. Says Dick Wadhams, the chairman of the Colorado Republican Party: “When voters really homed in on the choice between Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter and what each stood for, Gerald Ford almost won the election despite this horrible environment.”

Almost.

There is a natural tendency to focus on the personal in politics. And it’s often tempting to look at a local race and to think it’s smart to make the race about the fact that one candidate is, say, I don’t know, a recovering alcoholic with a history of spousal abuse, while the other is a squeaky clean family man. But it’s better to make all races about the issues, about spending another several trillion in Iraq versus getting out now, about letting our health care system languish versus finding a solution that saves money and brings quality health care to millions of Americans, about running up another several trillion in deficits versus restoring fiscal sanity to Washington.

Races built on personality are simply castles made of sand, and, as we all know, castles made of sand fall into the sea, eventually.

Local Congressional candidates seem to grasp this issue — Eric Massa’s substantive plans for health care and redeployment from Iraq are great examples. Let’s hope this kind of thinking takes hold nationally as well.

I’m trying to decide if this is real. Did they really vote against Mother’s Day? Now as I recall-they voted in favor of Christmas last December. What gives? Voting in favor of mom seems even less controversial than voting in favor of Jesus, especially in a governmental body that values the separation of church and state.

On Wednesday, the House took up the seemingly uncontroversial H. Res. 1113, “Celebrating the role of mothers in the United States and supporting the goals and ideals of Mother’s Day.” The resolution initially passed 412 to 0, until Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-KS) rose in protest:

Mr. Speaker, I ask for a recorded vote because I’m sure every member wants their mother to know that they have supported the goals of Mother’s Day.

Tiahrt’s mother, however, may be disappointed to know that her son did not support Mother’s Day. He and 177 other Republicans decided to cast their vote against mothers.

From the Washington Post:

Republicans, unhappy with the Democratic majority, have been using such procedural tactics as this all week to bring the House to a standstill, but the assault on mothers may have gone too far. House Minority Leader John Boehner, asked yesterday to explain why he and 177 of his colleagues switched their votes, answered: “Oh, we just wanted to make sure that everyone was on record in support of Mother’s Day.”

And then there is Veto Vito Fossella:

There’s the case of one member of his caucus, Rep. Vito Fossella (N.Y.); the father of three from Staten Island yesterday announced that he has a fourth, a 3-year-old love child with a woman from Virginia. That admission was prompted by his drunken-driving arrest in Virginia last week, when he told police he was on his way to see his daughter. “I think Mr. Fossella is going to have some decisions to make over the weekend,” Boehner said at his news conference yesterday, cutting Fossella loose. Fossella was spotted on the House floor, in tears, speaking to the chaplain.

For the record, Fossella did not participate in the Mother’s Day vote.

You can head over to Think Progress and watch the video too.

I Wonder how Mr Kuhl voted.

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(Dana Milbank seems to think puppies and kittens may be the next target)