The Republican candidate for the special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district, moderate Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, has suspended her campaign only four days before the election. This means that essentially, she is out of the race even though her name will remain on the Republican and Independence Party lines on the ballot next Tuesday. This is shocking news that dramatically alters the composition of the election and leaves Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman with the opportunity to solidify Republican support in the race to succeed longtime Republican congressman John McHugh.
For months earlier this summer, Scozzafava, a perennial assemblywoman from the Watertown area, was considered the favorite to win this race, with polls showing her consistently in the lead. But as she continued to be squeezed from both sides by Democrat Bill Owens on the one hand and Conservative Doug Hoffman on the other, her support has collapsed in recent days, with polls showing her now in a distant third place, as this chart from Pollster.com illustrates (we’ll try to embed the graph later if we can). To be sure, some of her collapse was due to huge blunders on her part.
The question now becomes: with a two-way race now solidly in the running, who stands to benefit more from Scozzafava being out of the race? The conventional wisdom is that with the Republican candidate out, her supporters will move largely to the Conservative in the race, but this is not necessarily a given at this point. 538.com takes an interesting look at the numbers in the context of the Siena poll released earlier this morning that showed Owens in the lead with 36%, Hoffman a very close second at 35%, and Scozzafava at 20%:
Scozzafava’s supporters in this poll:
– Have a favorable view of Barack Obama by a 64-31 margin.
– Have an unfavorable view of Hoffman 15-57.
– Have an unfavorable view of Democrat Bill Owens, 19-50.
It’s not quite so clear how Hoffman stands to benefit from this. Although a majority of Scozzafava’s supporters are Republican (about 62 percent, by my reckoning), it is safe to assume that they are mostly rather moderate Republicans, because almost all the conservative Republicans had already gone over to Hoffman. To wit, two-thirds of Scozzafava’s supporters say they like Barack Obama. While moderate Republicans are an endangered species elsewhere in the country, that is not true in upstate New York, where a lot of voters are registered as Republicans and vote that way in statewide races but often vote Democratic in federal races. (NY-23 supported Barack Obama 52-47 last November.)
[snip]
If I had to guess, I’d think that of Scozzafava’s support, one-quarter of people don’t vote, one-quarter vote for Scozzafava anyway, 30 percent defect to Hoffman and 20 percent defect to Owens. Extrapolating from the morning’s Siena poll, that would produce a result of Hoffman 43, Owens 42, Scozzafava 5, with 10 percent of the voters still up for grabs.
So, presumably this race is still up for grabs. I might argue that given Hoffman’s higher disapproval ratings and the fact that his entire campaign to this point was based around him being the true Republican in the race, her supporters may hold a much bigger grudge against him than they do towards Owens, and may blame him for being the person who cost her the election. If indeed Scozzafava’s hardcore supporters have such a favorable view of Obama, then perhaps Owens’ rally with Joe Biden coming to town on Monday could sway some voters in his direction.
In other post-Scozzafava news, the Independence Party, which is stuck with her on their line, has endorsed Owens. State Party Chairman Frank MacKay said this (via The Washington Independent):
“Some of our local organizations have endorsed Hoffman now that Scozzafava is out, and I want to be careful and respect their decisions,” said MacKay, who lives in downstate Suffolk County. “I don’t have a vote in the district. But if I did, I would vote for Bill Owens.”
[snip]
“If I knew how chaotic the Scozzafava campaign was going to be, I would have gone with Owens in the beginning,” said MacKay. “That certainly was a disastrous campaign.”
Even though Scozzafava is likely to formally endorse Doug Hoffman, her supporters would be much more at home with moderate Democrat Bill Owens; if anything, the assemblywoman is to the left of Owens at least on some social issues like gay marriage. To be sure, even though Hoffman might well end up winning this, his hardcore rightwing brand is not in the mainstream of New York’s 23rd district. One thing that Owens still has going for him is his large advantage in fundraising. But with only a few days left and perhaps no more public opinion polls to go by, this race is really anyone’s guess at this point.
Update: Democrat Bill Owens released this statement praising Scozzafava and launching a blistering attack on Hoffman — a smart strategy for him to follow for the remainder of the campaign.