A Short Analysis of the Pittsford Village Results
So the Dems lost in Pittsford village, despite our attempt to pump them at the last minute. Why? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
So, 3 seats were up last time, in 2007: 2 were together, and one by itself. Cleary won the singleton, Reynolds was 12 votes shy of winning one of the 2 clustered seats. Freed was a bit farther behind, with a 28-vote deficit.
Some interesting observations & questions, doing the best apples-to-apples comparison of the 2-seat grouping:
- Nearly twice the number of votes were cast for the 2-seat grouping in 2007 than in 2009, probably the effect of having a full slate on the Dem side, plus Johnson’s 3rd party run.
- Votes for individual candidates were down this year, roughly 75% of what they were in 2007. Freed actually underperformed her 2007 performance by 30%.
- Root causes? Was there a lack of urgent issues? In 2007, Pittsfordians seemed fired up about increased traffic through the village due to Pittsford Town sprawl, and concern that the all-GOP village government was not standing up to the all-GOP town government. Is that no longer an issue?
- Surely having one person on the slate had trickle-down effects, in terms of social networking, going door-to-door. One candidate can’t possibly cover as much social territory as two.
- Why didn’t Reynolds run again? She came so close in 2007. Understanding that running for office is hard work, and takes a lot of time, but it’s worth asking the question.
No analysis would be complete without looking at the party registration numbers. My data’s about a year old, but I assume it’s still pretty close to current numbers:
[Update: Reader Michael Slade has different numbers, even though I was also looking at just EDs 1&2. I'll review, reconcile, and re-post when I get a moment.]
Update: I think reader Bill sums it up nicely in this comment:
Unfortunately, it was a GOP sweep in Pittsford. I don’t know what issues were in play, but it is another example of the need to have candidates for both slots in a two seat race. I fear that some of the people that voted for the Dem candidate, Stacy Freed, then “used” their second vote to vote for one of the two GOP candidates. On the other hand, most GOP voters probably voted for the two GOP candidates. Town and village leaders…its not enough to run a single candidate…if there are two seats open, run two candidates, even if one is less active, otherwise the chances of winning are greatly diminished.
Indeed, even if it’s a “placeholder” candidate, maybe that person’s friends and family will be inspired to vote. In races like these where the vote gap is in the 1 to 20 votes range, that can make a huge difference.
Related posts:
Don’t know where you get your data for Pittsford Village registration.
pty CountOfpty
B 170
C 16
D 331
G 5
I 27
N 1
O 6
R 403
V 1
total 960 as of the Oct 2008 BoE file.
Feb numbers are down slightly.
pty CountOfpty
B 138
C 16
D 310
G 4
I 23
N 1
O 5
R 378
V 1
total 876
Village is only Pittsford EDs 1, 2 .
Simple analysis shows that without even knowing party registration of those who voted, those who supported Stacey Freed but choose to vote for a second candidate either Sherwood or Pierson, caused her to lose.