Let the Analysis begin - Monroe County Clerk
Remember the celebratory party at the Hyatt? I was feeling quite good, the results were favorable. Obama won, Massa and Maffei won, Joanne Winslow won - all did well in Monroe County but also had to earn their victories outside Monroe County. Heck, we even flipped the State Senate but no thanks to any local State Senate races.
We are going to start looking at the November election results when we get final numbers but I saw this from reader monroedem a while back which prompted this post.
Lastly,
Locally I must say I am extremely disappointed with the results. There is NO reason what-so-ever that Dem’s should not have had big wins in our area yesterday. I can only attribute the losses to what I know of the area and what I have learned here and in literature as well as several other websites.Pretty much every candidate whos complete scope was Monroe County lost. What was that term I saw on Robachs commercials? “Way to go Joe”, yet according to the newspaper heaps of new democrat registrations happened. Did they vote? Obviously not for dem candidates if they did.
We will start cross checking turn out and such but let’s start with County Clerk via the Presidential race.
There are 816 districts in Monroe County. The Democrats were on the Dem and WFP line. The GOP was on the Republican, Independent and Conservative lines. Here is the approximate vote total for Monroe County.
Obama (D and WFP) - 197K
McCain (R, I, C) - 139K
Hasman (D and WFP) - 119K
Dinolfo (R, I, C) - 167k
Let’s start with Voter registration totals. As of 11/1/08 there 442K active registered voters in Monroe County - active voters. I did not factor inactive voters. This breaks down to 171K Dems, 141K Republican, 16K Indy, 7K Conservative, 104K Blanks. That is the base with which to work. By the numbers with slight rounding:
100,000 non-voters - Excluding minor candidates- 336K voted in the Presidential race of 442K active voters meaning 106K in Monroe County didn’t vote in the Presidential Race (336/442 is 76%) - the assumption here is they didn’t vote at all - 25% didn’t vote.
50,000 under voters - only 286K voted in the County Clerk Race as opposed to 336K in the Presidential Race so 50K people didn’t vote in the Clerks race, in other words, they didn’t make the trip down ticket.
Lack of National GOP Support - 60,000 more people in Monroe County voted for Obama as opposed to McCain. The McCain/Palin ticket simply did not appeal to a lot of Monroe County Republicans, or right leaning blanks or independents. No surprise there - Republicans I spoke too were more than annoyed by Sarah Palin. As we have said here - there is a fundamental difference between New York GOP and say Arkansas GOP or more accurately - GOP “leaning” blanks and Independents. This resulted in a 60,000 vote gap between Obama and McCain.
The Local GOP is formidable. All politics are local and let’s talk about the Clerk. Tom Hasman lost by 48,000 votes. we discussed 50, 000 votes that didn’t make it down ticket. Certainly, Hasman would not have gotten them all. Still, this was interesting - 30,000 more people voted for Obama than Dinolfo. The efforts in Monroe County to ride the Obama wave into the County Clerks office fell significantly short. 48,000 votes short.
There were significant issues and events in play - identify theft and press stumbles by incumbent Cheryl Dinolfo. Still, the incumbent was backed by the ever popular County Executive which was difficult to overcome. The Identify theft issue never seemed to really catch on.
There were other factors such as educating the voters as to the impact the County Clerk does have on their lives. Media attention on the race was scant - I recall the only debate was very late in the cycle (a Friday night or something late evening) which probably did not garner a lot of attention. The media attention the race did get was uneven, with reporters often echoing the GOP line of “Why would Hasman bring attention to these unsecured Social Security numbers?” versus asking “Why hasn’t this problem been fixed?”
To their credit, the Hasman campaign did improve performance over the Dem challenger in 2004-they did better than 42% versus the 38% in 2004.
But the wind - hurricane force winds for that matter - of voter registration, turn out, and Obama excitement at the Democrat’s back could not close the 48000 vote gap.
That is too bad because the factors that drove the passion and commitment of the voters - record turn out and record voter registration - will not be repeated next year when we are electing the Monroe County Legislature.
In the end - all of this is simply a lost opportunity because President Obama isn’t going to get Social Security numbers off of the Monroe County Clerk’s web site.
So the question needs to be asked - We know that Monroe County Democrats can win county-wide legal positions like D.A. or judgeships but what is it going to take to win County-wide non-legal elected positions like Executive or Clerk?
What is it going to take? Seriously - what is it going to take?
Related posts:
- We have a County Clerk race on our hands
- More small-minded thinking, this time the Monroe County Clerk
- Monroe County Sheriff: What is it going to take to win a County Wide race
- MC-Clerk: More “He Said-She Said” from the Messenger Post
- Hasman addresses the privacy violations at the Monroe County Clerks office
I had the impression that the county dems did not put much effort into Tom’s race even though he was a strong candidate. ON thing we need is an attitude adjustment by our local leadership that makes every race count.
That could be - I haven’t looked at the expenditures yet and more importantly timing of the donations into the campaign.
This was an excellent opportunity for Monroe Democrats to make a statement - a county-wide statement especially given the lack of an Exec candidate last time.
In the end - improvement of 4% over the last County Clerk race set against the backdrop of a decent candidate and the Obama winds of excitement - makes you wonder what it is going to take.
Actually, it makes you wonder if County Democrats have what it takes to win a non-legal County wide race.
What is it going to take? It’s going to take money, ground organization, and the local media needs to stop repeating GOP talking points.
Hasman, for a first time candidate on a shoestring budget, ran an outstanding campaign. I firmly believe that with a little more money and support he could have pulled this out. The Dinolfo campaign and local GOP outspent Hasman in dramatic fashion. Think of the impact he could have had with some more money.
I also think that the Dems in the county need a better ground game. As mentioned in the post, the local GOP is formidable. The dems need to figure out a way to get better numbers in Greece, Pittsford, Penfield, etc. They don’t need to win these areas, just not lose in such big numbers. What can the Monroe County Dems learn from Obama? How did he win in Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada? How did he get so close in Montana? I think that there is something that we can take away from Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy here. It means a lot to people to ask for their votes. I think that to win a county-wide race, the local Dems need to take the race seriously and invest in the west-side and east-side suburbs. By investment, I mean money and the ground game basics. Significant outreach to the residents in these communities must take place.
What can Monroe dems learn from Eric Massa? Eric’s district is conservative, but he managed to eek out a victory. How did he cultivate votes in one of the reddest areas of the state?
Also, the local media is incredibly deferential to the local GOP. Is there anything that can be done about that? I don’t know….but this blog is a good start!
Thanks for the opportunity to have a postmortem on the Clerk’s race. It’s cathartic. Hasman was a great candidate and I hope to hear more from him in the future.
I disagree he ran an outstanding campaign. He was supremely qualified for the job, but I thought as a candidate he was average. He spoke to audiences I was a part of a number of times and he was clearly new to the game.
The thing I took away from this race is why isn’t this an appointed position??
The identity theft issue proved that this is an important job and should be above politics, IMO.
Maybe we should focus on trying to get that changed?
The problem wasn’t the candidate.
How Hasman spoke at public events and the way his campaign was run are tow entirely two different things.For the money he had, I think he ran an outstanding campaign. I saw his lawn signs everywhere and I believe that he did have an impact.
And, so what if he was “new to the game”? Isn’t that what we want? Maybe he wasn’t the most polished candidate, but aren’t we tired of the same old politicians?
The problem wasn’t the money.
+++ - Ok I’ll bite - what was the problem?
Attitude
expound, por favor
La estrategia política careció cojones
Hey everyone, it’s the candidate himself - Tom Hasman. I find these comments very interesting. I’ll offer some analysis based on my first hand experience.
As many know, I was a first time candidate running in a county-wide race. Many first time candidates run in town board races, etc. so I definitely had to hit the ground running. Monroe County has over 700,000 people.
DFA - Hep: I appreciate your feedback. What made me an average to you? What should I have done differently that would have made me a good or great candidate? Because, to be honest with you, I thought I did all I could have done. I did my best to raise the issues (social security numbers online, head of the DMV blogging during the day, misfiling of county records, etc.) but it is very hard to get media traction for the Clerk’s race especially in a Presidential year. I attended countless forums with the media present and mostly the only times the cameras were rolling was when Dollinger or Robach spoke. You were in the audience for a number of my events - what should I have done? You are right - I am new to the game. I never hid that. But we all have to start somewhere. At one point, Joe Morelle, Susan John, Maggie Brooks, my opponent, etc. were all new to the game.
As for the money issue. Take my word for it, money is a big factor in the success of getting out your message. Unlike many European countries that offer free advertising to candidates, America only offers the opportunity for any candidate to BUY advertising from the private media. I was outspent $27,000 to $211,000. Take a look at the BOE reports and will you see that I had a lot of small donations - I ran a grassroots campaign. A majority of my opponent’s donations ($198,640) came from the Republican committee. She had TV and radio ads on all the time, I had a small ad buy in the last 10 days of the campaign with the help of a $10,000 donation from the Democratic Committee (yes, that $10K is part of my $27,000).
My analysis - I ran the best campaign I could knowing that I was competing for resources (money, volunteers) with the presidential race, multiple Congressional, and State Senate and Assembly races. I had $27K to get out my message to 440,000 and I was still able to get 42.10% of the vote. I’m very proud of that.
What could I have done better? If I had additional funds, I could have bought more TV ads to help get my message out. As stlo7 noted in his analysis, Democrats have a bad habit of under-voting. Democrats do our best to become informed voters and when we don’t know anything about a candidate, some Democrats won’t vote for that person. I reached as many voters as I could at public events, going door-to-door, etc. but the reality is that 50,000+ Democrats who voted for Obama never made it to my race. Odds are that they didn’t know anything about me and chose to skip the race.
To +++ - I’m with stlo7 = if the problem wasn’t the candidate or money, than what was it?
I’ll give you a great reason why County Clerk should be elected — Cheryl Dinolfo. She was APPOINTED in 2004. She is not only a political crony but also completely incompetent. To make the position appointed opens the door to more cronyism and makes the office accountable to no one. The residents of Monroe County deserve a choice.
Dinolflo was appointed in 2002, then elected in 2004. Regardless, the position is in the state constitution. Anyone up for a constitutional convention? No?
couldn’t you say that lacking testosterone so to speak about any of the campaigns. But I think that’s also a leadership problem that starts at the top.
+++: Maggie Brooks was Clerk back in 2002. When Maggie won the County Executive race in November 2003, Cheryl was appointed interim Clerk in April 2004 and then was elected for a 4 year term in November 2004 (thus why the Clerk’s race now happens in a Presidential year). I believe what you’re referring to in 2002 is when Maggie appionted Cheryl Deputy Clerk which is standard practice as the Deputy Clerk and two Assistant Deputy Clerk’s are appointments given to the County Clerk.
muy bueno, realgreecer. Now what?
Hi Tom. I thought you were an excellent candidate. I think you may have surprised some by being such a good candidate and really qualified for the job and so not a lot of effort was put in by the higher ups until it was too late. I think you did a good job bringing out the Social Security issue. However, you needed some people in higher positions and already in office to back you up and scream about it more. It’s hard for one newcomer candidate to get the adequate attention of the press. For example, I think Mayor Duffy should have been vocal on this issue. Not just to help you out, but because it’s a serious issue that should’ve been given more attention in the press and not just a repeat of the Repub. talking points on the matter.
Like most challengers, I think it usually takes 2 tries to make the impact and get the win. I just wish this was a 2 year term instead of 4 so that you could go for again relatively soon - this time with more people understanding your potential from the get go.
Also, this race does not belong in an even numbered year. How can we get it changed so it’s not a presidential year race?
One thing that Eric Massa did was to become the “voice of the opposition” by issuing press releases about any and every thing that Randy Kuhl did wrong.
With the ongoing SSN issue, and perhaps with other issues, you might be able to get some free media by issuing a press release and/or calling up a few reporters to talk about the clerk’s office.
Perhaps Mr. Hasman could elaborate on his personal level of INTEGRITY - which he hid from the public because his level of INTEGRITY was so high.
Without naming names, I know for a fact that many elected officials, who were REPUBLICANS, as well as many media personalities were contacted PERSONALLY by Mr. Hasman, and not EXPLOITED for political or personal gain, because THEIR SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBERS, as well as the SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBERS of their SPOUSES were on the Clerk’s website, readily available for anyone to take and use to steal the identities of these individuals. This was in addition to the general public whose numbers are STILL available on the clerks website.
It speaks volumes, that this man, this qualified man, had the level of integrity himself to contact these individuals directly, and privately, to successfully contact Dinolfo to have their data removed. Their gratitude for such a selfless effort on the part of Mr. Hasman?
Complete silence.
No outcry or demand for the site being brought down until the site could be scrubbed, no news story to show that this was and REMAINS a serious, critical security issue to all who reside in our county - NOTHING. No thank you to Mr. Hasman for helping protect their identities. Zip - zilch - nada…silence. And their reward is the continuance of the arrogance and negligence and ignorance of the law, the security of the residents she serves, and the integrity of the office she holds.
They could have research Hasman further to know that in his statements to the press he indicated that he had a family member who was a victim of identity theft to such a serious degree of damage done that his conviction to stopping this malfeasance was greater than seizing the opportunity to capture the votes of the voters in Monroe County. Because he knew personally, firsthand, the type of collateral damage that identity theft causes, and knew firsthand the incredible amount of time, effort and more a family member expended to clear their name from thieves who simply took a social security number and “used” it…
Mr. Hasman sells himself short. Not only was he an exceptional candidate, but his own modesty, which he could have exploited for political gain, was instead proof positive that the loss of this position by Mr. Hasman was the greatest loss for Monroe County for many years to come.
On behalf of those who know the caliber of person you are, I hope that you will again run for public office, and this community can be rewarded with a person who actually gives a damn, and had the courage to not only do the right thing, but fight for the rest of us to make an incredible difference.
Thanks Tom Hasman. For who you are - for what you stand for - for what you personally gave of yourself to your community. We were lucky to have known you, and we highly encourage you to keep fighting the good fight, and come back again, and take what should have been yours to operate.
Bottom line - why he didn’t win? MONEY. It’s what Monroe County has become. Money taken from schools and called “fair”…money stolen from taxpayers in LCD’s and COMIDA funding yet to be concluded through investigation, and money paid in and transferred for jobs doled out to the loyal, and favors collected and received, and bogus media companies established to cycle and launder funds back and forth and between GOP candidates in Monroe County.
The monster called Maggie of Monroe has been created. Now it’s up to the taxpayers and voters in Monroe County to cut the head of it off. It never was, and never will be Hasman’s or any other candidates fault…it’s money, and control and corruption. What are YOU going to do about that?
It wasn’t money. Good guess, but go fish.
I’m curious +++, do you have any real insight? Anything to offer besides no money, attitude, and, apparently, cojones? Please, enlighten us with your wisdom?
Thanks for the kind word Andrea. The only way to move the Clerk’s race to a non-Presidential year is to have the current Clerk step down/resign out of the election cycle. For example, if the Clerk resigned today, an interim Clerk would be appointed and then an election would take place in November 2009 for a new Clerk who would serve a full 4 year term. This would alter the Clerk’s race cycle to 2009, 2013, 2017, etc. Until something like that scenario happens, the Clerk’s race will remain on the Presidential cycle.
I don’t have any real insight, but I will offer that the question remains not so much what happened, but what can be done in the future to achieve different results.
If the problem was the candidate, then we are going to have a difficult time finding a more qualified, hardworking candidate then Tom Hasman.
If the problem was that Tom Hasman was not an experienced local politician, then perhaps we should consider that if any experienced local politician had thought the seat winnable, they probably would have run for it themselves.
If the problem was money, then we should probably give up because the Republicans consistently out raise Democrats locally.
There are only so many variables that you can control in a campaign. If your resources do not change markedly and you only have so many options with candidates, strategy and tactics are the really the only variables you control.
If you continue to deploy those resources the exact same way as previously losing campaigns, then your only chance of success is going to be based on the vagaries of things beyond your control (mood of electorate, missteps of opponent, media priorities, etc.)
That being said, it is these vagaries that tend to drive the outcome of elections. This year Tom Hasman had the wind at his back in a way that will probably not be repeated anytime soon, yet 50,000 Monrovians didn’t bother to vote down ticket (up from 44K in 2004).
What is it going to take? Seriously?
Tom - I didn’t mean any offense in my comment. You stepped up to try and make a difference by running, which is more than I have done - and that should be commended. Really I suppose I should keep my mouth shut.
I guess it was just the vibe I got. It felt to me that when discussing the issues you were on point, but I didn’t feel comfortable with the electability of Candidate Hasman. It’s not something I spoke of publicly, in fact I tried to talk up your qualifications up every chance I got. But I feel comfortable bringing it up in the election post-mortem.
I also obviously agree that everyone has to start somewhere, and I hope you take another shot at the office. I actually hope you take a page from Eric Massa’s playbook - maybe not run for the next 4 ( ? ) years, but keep in the public spotlight the best you can (this is a great forum to start from), then launch the campaign officially again in 2 - 2 1/2 years.
I should like to repeat that I think you are supremely qualified for the position. And I was very happy to host a lawn sign, get signatures, drop lit for you and pull the lever.
+++ I understand that a constitutional convention is a long shot, but I think this race really does illustrate why it should be an appointed position. Sure, Maggie Minarek has made Bush-esque quality appointments, but if the Dems had bothered to run a candidate last time, I think the new Dem Exec would have been in a position to appoint someone like Tom who could really turn the office around.