New poll in the 29th
A poll commissioned by the Kuhl campaign asked if the election were held today, who would you vote for? A month ago, Kuhl led Massa 44 to 39 percent, a five percent lead, with 17% undecided.
Last week, the poll shows Kuhl’s lead widened to 10 points, 40% to 30%, even though his own support obviously dropped as well. And a much larger number, 31%, were undecided.
[snip]
Kuhl’s poll was done by McLaughlin and Associates on October 10th. “It really says the voters are taking a second look at both candidates right now because of the heightened concerns about the economy,” said John McLaughlin, Kuhl’s pollster.
In the presidential race, the same poll shows John McCain leading Barack Obama in the 29th district 42% to 40%, with 18 percent undecided
McLaughlin and Associates, endorsed by the Washington Times-wonder what their slant is? (I like the smile on the guy who’s standing up- a SEG if I ever saw one!)
The article goes on to say:
Massa’s campaign takes issue with the poll’s methodology. The poll was random, but it estimated a 48% Republican turnout based on the 2004 results. Democrats say that’s too high.
[snip]
Two other recent polls show Massa leading. Survey USA polled for the Washington paper Roll Call and shows Massa leading 51% to 44%, with five percent undecided. And a poll for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by Beneson Strategy Group shows Massa leading 47-42% with 13% undecided. And because of rounding, that adds up to slightly more than 100 percent.
Let’s stay focused here and make sure that the poll that really counts, counts well for our side. Massa can and should beat this Bush rubberstamping congressman.
Related posts:
I checked out the McLaughlin website, and read the report he wrote to the Ripon Society linked on the site. It was his early ‘08 analysis of the then upcoming ‘08 election cycle. Now you can carp and say that he wasn’t the only one that misread things, like his seeming near-certainty that Hillary Clinton would be the party nominee. But…he’s a pollster. He’s supposed to have a better crystal ball than us civilians. His final words were especially prophetic…well, 180 degrees opposite prophetic. “The 2008 election can be an election of opportunity rather than an election of decline. The changes are coming.” Oh yes…changes are coming indeed…
Thought this was interesting too:
Since joining McLaughlin & Associates in 2002, Keith Zeig has been an integral part of McLaughlin & Associates’, Keith has participated in numerous corporate and political campaigns.
Keith was involved with the successful federal campaigns of Congressman Peter King (NY-3), Congressman Mark Kirk (IL-10), Congressman Randy Kuhl (NY-29), Congressman Mike Rogers (AL-3), Congressman Robert Aderholt (AL-4), and Congressman Eric Cantor (VA-7).
Keith has also worked very closely with the Ohio Republican Party, as well as the National Republican Congressional Committee and the New York State Senate Republican Campaign Committee.