How to win the 56th Senate District
The 56th Senate District race between Republican Senator Joe Robach and Democratic former Senator Rick Dollinger is critical this November. Without the 56th district, it will be very difficult- if not impossible- for the Dems to take back the State Senate.
Here is a map of the 56th:
Keep this map in mind while I run through the numbers.
In the 2006 election, Senator Robach won reelection with 50,411 votes (66%) to 26,434 (34%). His only opponent was Willa Powell, a weak Democratic candidate.
The four parts of the district voted as follows:
- The city was the only area that Powell won, and she received just 53%. Rochester cast 26,408 votes, or 34%, of the total number of 76,846 votes cast in this election.
- Robach won the town of Brighton- which cast 18% of the overall votes- with 60%.
- He was also the winner in Greece with a huge 81% to Powell’s 19%. Greece cast 41% of the votes.
- Robach won Parma by the same 81-19 margin in Greece. Parma voters cast just 7% of the total votes.
So Senator Robach won by a nearly two-to-one margin by doing three things: keeping it very close in the city, winning Brighton handily, and destroying his opponent in Greece and Parma (which together cast nearly half of the votes in the race).
What might happen in 2008? Each of the following scenarios assumes that the exact same number of votes cast in each of the four parts of the district that were cast in 2006 will be cast again in 2008. This is charitable to Robach, because it is very likely that Rochester’s- and possibly Brighton’s- share of the overall votes cast will increase in 2008 more than the increased turnout in Greece and Parma.
But let’s assume for the sake of simplicity that the exact same people who voted in this race in 2006 will vote again in 2008, with no more and no less.
Scenario #1: Dollinger wins Rochester with 60%, and Robach wins Brighton with 51%, as well as Greece and Parma with 70%. In that case, Robach will be re-elected by a wide margin, 56% to Dollinger’s 44%.
Scenario #2: Dollinger wins Rochester with 65% and Brighton with 54%, while Robach wins Greece and Parma with 65%. Then, Robach will still be re-elected, but by a much smaller 51-49.
Scenario #3: Dollinger wins Rochester with 68% and Brighton with 57%, and Robach wins Greece and Parma with 62%. Using those numbers, Dollinger would win the seat with less than 52% of the vote.
Conclusion: Of course those aren’t the only three possible outcomes, but for Dollinger to clinch the seat, he has to do three things: win by a 2-1 margin in Rochester; win Brighton by a double-digit margin; and make sure Robach doesn’t go much above 60% in the western towns.
The truth is that Robach is a formidable opponent and this race is far from over. In Brighton, which Dollinger has to win big, there are more Joe Robach lawn signs than I have seen in any of his previous elections and no Dollinger signs to be found anywhere. The Dollinger campaign has its work cut out for it and they should start spreading their message more. Speaking as a Brightonian myself, I will be going to their campaign office sometime this week to pick up some canvassing supplies and a few lawn signs to spread around my neighborhood. I encourage every progressive who lives in the 56th and who wants a Democratic majority in the State Senate to do the same.
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Nice summary. One point: turn-out in the city will be elevated in this cycle, due to the presence of Obama at the top of the ticket. How much I don’t know, but I’d guess at least 10% beyond what the increased turn-out in Greece is.
I agree. I said in the post that I was being charitable to Robach by using the exact numbers from 2006.
Energized yes, and increased turn out sure - however there has to be a concerted effort to ensure that turn-out is transferred down ticket. There are no guarantees.
As I recall the last County clerk race - Dinolfo and Cook - there were more votes for Executive, lots more than for Clerk.
Let’s not forget those undeterminables like weather. Last year it rained on election day and the city stayed home as more people tend to walk to their polling places.
My point is, we can speculate all we want, what really needs to happen is we have to get off our duffs and work.
When are you referring to? Executive didn’t run the last time Clerk did. So are you saying that since the last clerk race was a presidential year that doesn’t guarantee higher votes on the clerk line? Just clarifying.
he might want to start with some lawn signs.
I drove down allyns creek on Sat. and Robach signs were plentiful
I’m not in a position to asses any issues in the campaign but It is difficult to get the media to pay attention. It’s very difficult to get stories on real Greece and Westside issues in the open here. Note today’s crucial news report from Greece about Balloons at the Greece town mall. that’s a high priority item if there ever was one.
There is a major problem about lawn signs across most of the Democratic candidates. My Republican father has been overwhelmed with GOP candidates contacting him to place lawn signs. Robach’s campaign has been especially aggressive. Robach has firefighters energized for his campaign because he has been a big supporter of volunteers, and a number of those signs are sitting in firefighter’s yards and those of their extended families - Robach’s campaign will give you plenty to hand around.
Meanwhile, the Democrats are, as usual, currently disorganized. The Massa campajgn’s website talks about lawn signs coming “later this summer.” For Rochester, summer is over.
Winslow’s campaign site has an offer for signs, but NO WEB FORM to request one. Instead, they have a PDF file you can print out, and then throw away because nowhere on the form is any information about where to send it. Hello?!?!?
Dollinger’s campaign has been invisible on signs. No push calls to energized Democrats to get signs placed. If you make voters do all the work, you are not going to get a lot done. People are willing to pay $8 for an Obama lawn sign (which usually get stolen, probably to reappear on someone else’s lawn). This is a far cry from Kerry/Edwards, Some yahoo in a pickup truck ran over mine four years ago.
Falk, running for town justice in Brighton, doesn’t seem to have a web page that Google knows about. He’s got a few lawn signs up around the area, but I guess they went to connected Democrats because ordinary voters don’t even have a clue who he is or what he is running for.
In fact, the ONLY campaign that I’ve heard from, and is blitzing supporters from previous years with calls and efforts to get people involved is… Rep. Louise Slaughter! She doesn’t even have a serious competitor, but her lawn sign is on the way, and they found me, which is always amazing because the district line between Slaughter’s sliver wide jog from the city through Brighton down to her home in Fairport cuts right through my property here on Elmwood. Thank God my house is in her district. But the back corner of my yard is in Randy Kuhl’s district.
It always makes for a big mess because Kuhl thinks I am in his district and sends me mailers, and Slaughter used to think I wasn’t. After getting that straightened out, two years ago I had lawn signs for Massa and Slaughter.
Let’s get it together and get those signs out there!
[...] I say, it was a very optimistic assessment. I spelled it all out quite clearly earlier this week: Greece and Parma will in all likelihood vote for Robach, while the city will go with Dollinger, [...]