Do not underestimate Sarah Palin
There is trooper-gate, there is her unmarried pregnant daughter, there is the fact that she was the mayor of a city that is smaller than my neighborhood and a governor of the 47th smallest state, there is her inconsistency on the bridge to nowhere, there is the uncertainty about whether she can handle the constant media attention, there is a situation in which she barely knows the man on the top of the ticket who she is running with, there is her ties to indicted Senator Stevens, and to top it all off, some people see her selection as the VP candidate for what it is, a gimmick.
But, what I can no longer stomach is to see headlines in progressive blogs that are already declaring victory with more than two months to go before the election. Anything could happen in that time period.
It is not beyond the realm of possibility for the following to happen:
The media could drop the ball on her past record and instead beat the “maverick” narrative to death. She could be a great campaigner who connects with people, in particular moderate suburban women, on a gut level. She has a compelling life story that may win over some Hillary-supporters who care more about personality politics than they do about policies. Palin could also drive a lot of evangelicals and disaffected conservatives to the polls. She may give a fantastic speech at the RNC. Biden may turn off some undecided voters if he appears too tough on her in the debate (remember Rick Lazio). Keep in mind as well, she defeated popular former Governor Tony Knowles in 2006 in a close election.
The truth is this: we can still lose this election. A six-point lead is hardly enough of a cushion to just sleep through the next few months as though we have already won.
Sarah Palin may well crash and burn, as I hope she does. But to act as though she already has is the height of electoral irresponsibility. She may be the best thing that could have happened to the McCain campaign. Three days is hardly enough time to predict how she will hold up under the spotlight.
We still have two months to go. Instead of cracking open the champaign, canvass a neighborhood. Instead of throwing confetti, convince a friend who is on the fence to vote for Obama. Instead of droping balloons from the ceiling, take part in phone-banking. Instead of declaring victory, let us recognize that we can still lose this election.
NEVER UNDERESTIMATE YOUR OPPONENT.
Update:
Acting like we’ve already won (or that Palin has already fallen flat on her face) here, here, here, and here and here. And those are just from two websites. Also, I’ve included some links in the first paragraph.
Related posts:
I don’t agree at all. Momentum is extremely important in presidential races. If the feeling becomes “McCain screwed up, he can’t win”, then that hurts him enormously.
And regardless, as bloggers we have the duty to say what we believe to be the truth. We’re not the Obama campaign. The Obama campaign shouldn’t underestimate her. But that’s a different story.
Dead Heat - Obama 49 McCain 48 before McCain’s convention
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/31/cnn-poll-obama-49-mccain-48/
Two other polls showed Obama up 7 and 8 points today. He’s up 6 in the Gallup tracker and 3 in the Rasumssen. Average them all (including the CNN one you mention) together and you’ve Obama winning by 5.
Gallup Daily: Obama Maintains 6-Point Lead, 49% to 43%. http://www.gallup.com/poll/109954/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-6Point-Lead-49-43.aspx
Oooooh, I found one for our side!!!! So what? Are we trading polls that agree with us?
“As for polling released within the past 24 hours, Barack Obama maintains a 6-point lead in the Gallup tracker (although both candidates gained a point against undecided), and a 3-point lead in the Rasmussen tracker. CNN shows it a bit tighter still, with Obama holding a 2-point lead with third party candidates included (this is the version that we use officially) an a 1-point lead without. There is also a CBS News poll showing Obama 8 points ahead, although it came in too late to work its way into our simulation run today.” http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/todays-polls-91.html
What an exercise in pointlessness.
As to hypotheticals, Palin could turn out to be Wonder Woman, too.. More likely, the recent public vetting of her will do more to call in to question McCain’s judgment and decision making skills than her Far Right bona fides will benefit the ticket. All this before she has to face the national press in earnest. I endorse your encouragement for people to put boots on the ground, but sentiments like yours scare me into thinking we’re still a party scared shiftless of the Repubs in a year we should be clubbing them like baby seals in a barrel.
I could not agree more - The concept of this post is not to underestimate ones opponent.which is sage advice. I’m going to disagree that bloggers are declaring victory - yes there is an element of surprise as Sarah Palin gets publicly vetted and each new revelation reflects poorly on John McCain’s judgment.
The national GOP may not know how to govern but they do know how to win elections.
One of my father’s favorite statements lately:
“No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.” Henry Louis Mencken.
Yes, there’s a distinction between saying “the McCain campaign screwed up” on your blog and packing it in as an Obama supporter.
Zogby:
McCain 47 Obama 45
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1547.html
I know it is way toooooo early to worry about polls except in the sense that Obama’s acceptance speech may be being trumped by the Palin nomination
exile - I don’t know what your comment refers to with regards to airbare’s post and my comment.
A little help.
One more thing -
This really is about John McCain. In fact, John Sudbay sums it up well, best I’ve seen.
This is what we can expect from a President McCain in terms of Judgement?
You said it’s fair to say that the McCain campaign screwed up and is hurt by this, but that’s not the same as acting like the election is already over.
We’re *finally* starting to see this angle from the media. The fact that McCain didn’t vet her at all is finally coming under scrutiny.
So are we agreeing ?
Look - My points with regards to this post are
1. Don’t underestimate the opposition
2. No one I see is declaring victory and if they are see point 1.
3. All this (Patlin per this post) comes back on McCain’s judgment.
Are we in agreement?
and the blogger community over all is making that job easier.
Let;s not forget that Palin was announced on Friday August 29th. it is September 1st and the information is still coming out. All this over Labor Day weekend.
Yes!
You’re post is largely right on. I think most progressives/liberals are totally underestimating Palin’s attraction to moderate Republicans and Reagan Democrats. These middle Americans will look past all the negatives Democrats think so major as just minor concerns and consider the fact of her roots and tight family. It’s way too soon to start seeing Palin as a drag on the ticket.
I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t understand what moderate Republicans and Reagan Democrats are thinking.
But I was at a party today with non-political folks, most of them more conservative than me. All of them questioned McCain’s judgment in appointing Palin, mainly because of her daughter’s pregnancy.
Let me ask you this: was arugula served at this party?
No, red meat and cold beer. So we all love our country.
Also, I agree with the basic premise of this post: it’s too early to declare victory. It’s too early to even know how the Palin pick will affect the race. In two weeks, the pollster.com averages will be worth a look. Right now, everything’s in flux.
No, red meat and cold beer
Let me guess…microbrews and Kobe burgers.