Further Analysis of Davi$ and Minarik
Random thoughts, upon further analysis of these developing stories:
- Jack Davis got campaign finance law overturned, so now he can spend whatever he wants while Jon Powers is still shackled by fundraising limitations. Seems to me that Powers’ freedom of speech is the one being limited by this ruling. What Grievous Angel said, basically.
- Trouble for Davis is, who votes in primaries? The base. The grassroots. It’s hard to guess how many folks are going to turn out for the primary in September, but estimates I’ve seen show a super-low turnout, compared to the general election. Especially if folks are saying “Wha?? Didn’t we already have a primary in February or something? Don’t we have a nominee already?” Who in NY-26 is going to be fired up enough to go out to the polls on primary day? Spidey sense tells me low information voters who have been saturated with Davis ads will not be bothering. On the other hand, Powers has been building a grassroots army for about a year, working with downticket candidates at several levels, and garnering support from every Dem committee in the district. All these committees and candidates have dedicated volunteers (mini-machines, in a way) that will network and get each other out to voters and to the polls on primary day. I believe that alone will get Powers over the top. Personal contact is a much more powerful motivator and persuasion tool than even paid media.
- After thinking about the rumor about Minarik being appointed to the MCC interim presidency, my spidey sense is starting to tell me it’s a Rovian trick, to make people feel better about who they actually do appoint on Monday. Kind of like when my wife comes home and says, “Honey, I’ve got some bad news. I’m…pregnant again.” After I come to, she says, “Just kidding– I actually just spent $100 on some clothes.”
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[...] them to be this clearly behind a candidate in a crowded field. To me, this means they believe, as I do, that “Dollar Bill” Davis will not be able to buy his way into the seat and that the [...]