Clinton’s Kentucky Derby
Will Hillary Clinton’s impressive win in Kentucky sway any superdelegates to her side? The winner of the Kentucky contest has gone on to win the presidency the past several presidential elections. Is this part of why Clinton is staying in the race? It seems very likely a part of her argument. Clinton is like a race horse not ready to be put out to pasture.
Despite Obama’s big win in Oregon, Clinton is making the argument that Oregon is a liberal state that would vote Democratic in the general election anyway. Clinton’s strong showing in swing states bolsters her argument, and she raised $22 million last month even though her path to the nomination seems to be dwindling.
Yet Obama and the media act as if the race is almost over. Is it?
She raised $22 million, but is still in debt.
This race is over, and the reason is money. She raised $22 mil last month and is now $31 mil in the hole. That’s a jaw-dropping number. Phenomenal, really. Half of it is a candidate loan, but the other half is owed to her vendors.
The Mark Penns of the world are going to wait for their money, but vendors like airplane charters, TV stations, event managers, etc. are going to want cash up front. This will constrict her ability to campaign somewhat, and lower her profile.
Also, the “argument” that she can win a state in the general because she won the Democratic primary is just silly. Obama won North Dakota and Idaho, which haven’t gone Democratic since probably LBJ days. Does that mean ND and ID are going to be Obama states this Fall?
Yes and it has been for awhile.
Sure- play out the hand as negotiations are occuring to ensure a role for our junior Senator. I actually beleive there isn’t much damage caused here if we go just past Memorial Day. Barring some absolute meltdown Obama is it.
I also believe that just because you win a Dem primary doesn’t mean you win the state.
I’m thinking more about where Hillary’s strengths are (blue collar workers) and how that eats into McCain’s votes. But the latest polls show Obama ahead of McCain so perhaps I shouldn’t worry.
Blue collar voters might prefer Hillary to Obama in a Hillary vs. Obama context. That doesn’t imply that they prefer McCain over Obama. Those are totally different questions.
Couple of data points:
Latest Survey USA polls shows Obama beating McCain in PA by 8 points. That’s one of Hillary’s blue-collar states.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/196059.php
Obama won working-class whites in Oregon.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/oregon_exit_polls_obama_handil.php
Blue collar voters might prefer Hillary to Obama in a Hillary vs. Obama context. That doesn’t imply that they prefer McCain over Obama. Those are totally different questions.
Couple of data points:
Latest Survey USA polls shows Obama beating McCain in PA by 8 points. That’s one of Hillary’s blue-collar states.
Obama won working-class whites in Oregon.
I’m not sure how/why people believe Obama is an elitist, but Hillary isn’t. It’s a strange world.
Beyond the Appalachian voter connection that Josh Marshall has been discussing, and beyond Rotten’s salient point about the difference between primaries and generals, there is the question of what, precisely Hillary won.
They keep discussing race voters as though they’re exclusively Barack Obama’s problem, but I think it reveals a larger Conservatism that presents a problem for both candidates. Yes, Hillary can win in Appalachia against a black man. But when it comes down to a woman versus a white man like John McCain, will that same set of prejudiced voters rain on her parade as well?
Granted there’s no evidence of this, but that’s largely because any polling data there might be (and there might not be any) on West Virginia or Kentucky general election preferences is not being reported.
Dana Milbank said it best: “They say it’s all over but the shouting. Fortunately, Hillary Clinton does that part very well.”
I think speculation is foolish.
Only Hillary should decide when Hillary thinks it’s over.
Period.
This is democracy. Anything less is Republican.
I’ve got no problem with Hillary staying in until the bitter end. But, I also have no problem with Obama turning his attentions to McCain and the general either.
Let’s let Hillary address the question…
Dear Rochester Turning.com reader,
I owe our 35-point win in Kentucky yesterday to your incredible support. So let me ask you — do you think we should let the TV talking heads have the final say in this race? Or should we do what we have always done, and fight together for what you and I believe in?
I have never for one moment forgotten what this race is about — the millions of people who are looking to you and me for the leadership America needs. It’s about getting our economy moving again. It’s about bringing the war in Iraq to a responsible end. It’s about fulfilling America’s energy needs while protecting the planet for our children and grandchildren. It’s about making sure that every man, woman, and child in America has health care.
Now we have just three races left, and your help is absolutely critical in these final two weeks. So let’s do it. Let’s keep fighting and winning together, as we have all along.
Contribute today and let’s keep driving toward victory.
Let’s talk about the state of this race.
I’ve won more votes than anyone running for the Democratic nomination in the history of our party. I’ve won states that will total 308 electoral votes in November — more than enough to carry the general election. And it is critical that we make certain the more than 2 million voters in Florida and Michigan are heard.
We can let the media decide this race. We can let the pundits be the ones who determine our party’s nominee. Or we can listen to the voters. Yesterday, voters in Kentucky joined you in sending a clear message — this campaign is far from over.
Throughout it all, through the ups and downs of this race, you’ve been there, supporting me every step of the way. Help me send a strong message that this race isn’t over yet.
Contribute now to help us in the final three races.
I’m so proud of what we accomplished yesterday in Kentucky, and of all the victories we celebrated together. We’ve worked too hard to stop now. Thank you for your incredible support. I don’t have to tell you that I couldn’t do this without you.
Sincerely,
Hillary Rodham Clinton
hillary clinton dot com
Jiminy -
What exaclty is this? Looks like a standard email solicitation.
Not that Hillary needs my permission but she can do whatever she wants to do with regards to the race. As I said earlier - I’m OK with here staying through June 2nd. I like the fact that each state is playing in the primary. I like that it stretches the candidates. Frankly - I can only imagine that it helps support the 50 state strategy. Still - barring a meltdown - it isn’t going to matter - Obama is it.
With regards to her letter.
Just because you win a Dem Primary doesn’t mean you win the state in a general. I think that is a stretch
Florida and Michigan. The voters be heard? Too late for that. The states moved up the primaries and frankly had they actually waited they could have had an more of an influence. That said the Dem candidates agreed not to campaign in those states. Seems like Hillary is trying to get a favorable result from this confusion. Not that I don’t blame her for trying but in the end the delegates will be seated and split -
This is an example of the gross sophism that has taken over the Clinton campaign. That sophism is characterized by two major themes and ambition that has no concern for the ultimate fate of the party if she isn’t at the top of the ticket. Her themes:
1. Ignoring inconvenient facts.
These facts include the prior agreement among the candidates that Florida and Michigan don’t count. The fact that what counts is delegate totals, not popular votes, not “big states”, not “blue states”. The fact that caucuses, no matter whether they are “fair” or not, are the agreed-upon method for electing delegates in a number of states.
2. Absurd, red-herring statistics.
Winning more votes than any other candidate in history doesn’t matter because Obama has won more. The electoral vote totals of the states she’s won don’t matter because it’s likely that Obama could win a good number of those states, too, and some of those states won’t be won by any Democrat. And on it goes. Her minions gin up new statistics every day, with the cynical goal of giving her supporters false hope, and tricking the public into thinking that she has more of a chance than she does.
Her ambition fuels her rhetoric into ever more damaging heights. At this moment, she’s visiting the Florida counties where Gore lost in 2000 with the transparent aim of likening her situation there to Gore’s. This is an attempt to compare Obama to the Republicans who many Democrats believe stole the election. She’s sounded more like a Republican than McCain with some of her rhetoric in the past., because she will do anything to win, without regard to the damage to the inevitable nominee or the party.
If Clinton is using the argument that Oregon is a liberal state that will go Democratic anyway, then Obama can use the counterargument that New York is a blue state that will go his way, as is California, Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Of course, Clinton’s argument has been all along that states like California and New York (”big” states) are in her corner and in order to win the general, you need to have these “big” states.
Then again, Clinton’s argument keeps changing. I thought you needed West Virginia to win in the election until she goes to Kentucky and tells voters there the exact same tale.
You can’t change the rules of the game in the middle (or near the end) of the game but Hillary Clinton has done just that. Even though Florida and Michigan both violated the rules, she insists they be counted. She has changed her tune numerous times, saying that the popular vote should be the measure of who is the better candidate and now saying that it is the electoral vote.
I’m sick of it. Obama is our nominee and let’s get behind him IMMEDIATELY.
Well, I was going to vote for Senator Obama but now that Senator Clinton is comparing her fight to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates to the anti-slavery and women’s sufferage movements, I have to vote for her instead.
Funny.