Comments on: Today’s special election http://rochesterturning.com/2008/05/03/todays-special-election/ turning the tide upstate Tue, 02 Dec 2008 05:33:25 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: rochesterturning.com: turning the tide upstate http://rochesterturning.com/2008/05/03/todays-special-election/#comment-139646 rochesterturning.com: turning the tide upstate Sun, 04 May 2008 03:05:20 +0000 http://rochesterturning.com/2008/05/03/todays-special-election/#comment-139646 [...] Democrat Don Cazayoux won the special election in Louisiana’s sixth Congressional district that we wrote about earlier today. [...] [...] Democrat Don Cazayoux won the special election in Louisiana’s sixth Congressional district that we wrote about earlier today. [...]

]]> By: Exile on Ericsson St. http://rochesterturning.com/2008/05/03/todays-special-election/#comment-139529 Exile on Ericsson St. Sat, 03 May 2008 14:04:07 +0000 http://rochesterturning.com/2008/05/03/todays-special-election/#comment-139529 I agree it's a decent metric, but an overly optimistic one. I agree it’s a decent metric, but an overly optimistic one.

]]> By: Rottenchester http://rochesterturning.com/2008/05/03/todays-special-election/#comment-139518 Rottenchester Sat, 03 May 2008 11:50:05 +0000 http://rochesterturning.com/2008/05/03/todays-special-election/#comment-139518 Bush would lose badly against a Democrat. That said, I still think the "districts that favored Bush in '04" metric is a decent one to single out conservative districts. Bush was a mediocre president presiding over a war that wasn't going too well, running against an OK-but-not-great Kerry in 2004. There was nothing in that election, except perhaps the war, to make people vote outside their natural comfort zones. The difference this time is the war is very unpopular and that will swing some districts if the incumbent is seen as a war supporter. Bush would lose badly against a Democrat.

That said, I still think the “districts that favored Bush in ‘04″ metric is a decent one to single out conservative districts. Bush was a mediocre president presiding over a war that wasn’t going too well, running against an OK-but-not-great Kerry in 2004. There was nothing in that election, except perhaps the war, to make people vote outside their natural comfort zones.

The difference this time is the war is very unpopular and that will swing some districts if the incumbent is seen as a war supporter.

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