The next special election
We’ve written a great deal about recent special elections in Mississippi and Illinois, both of which went shockingly well for Democrats (a Dem won in IL-14 and won a plurality of votes in MS-1, forcing a run off). The next big special election is in Louisiana’s 6th Congressional districts. It’s interesting to look at this one for clues about what will go on locally in Congressional races come November. First off: there have been more outside Republican expenditures than Democratic ones:
. The congressional committees of both parties, as well as Freedom Watch and the Club for Growth, are pouring money into the district’s mailboxes and airwaves. Trey Ourso, a Democratic consultant working for the Cazayoux campaign, estimated the combined barrage of political advertising amounted to 6,500 points a week on Baton Rouge television, a staggering amount for a single special election.
Ourso estimated that even though Jenkins himself has a limited presence on television, the balance, including the attack ads from national groups, is running about 60-40 against Cazayoux.
This brings me to a question I’ve wondered about. Do outside ads from right-leaning groups play more in right-leaning areas of the country (meaning the south especially), while left-leaning ones play better in left-leaning areas of the country (meaning the northeast, including this area, despite party registration figures)? The answer must certainly be “yes”. And it makes me think that MoveOn and like-minded groups will play a bigger role locally than Freedom Watch in NY-25, NY-26, and NY-29.
Another interesting tidbit:
Another thing the Mississippi and Louisiana races have in common is that Republican rivalries have hobbled the GOP in both districts.
As if the Republicans in 25 and 26 needed to be reminded that they’ll have to get the Bellavias and Gays out of the race sooner rather than later.
I agree with this, with the proviso that the ads are decent and not the ham-fisted cookie-cutter attempts that you often see from these groups. A prime example was the moveon ad from the last cycle in the 29th, which contained a factual error and was also completely over-the-top.