Last night’s other election
Remember that special election in Mississippi’s first Congressional district we talked about yesterday? In a heavily Republican district (a Cook PVI of +10R)? Turns out the Democrat almost — but not quite — reached the 50% threshold to prevent run-off election and win the seat outright:
Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers, a Democrat, led Southaven mayor Greg Davis (R) in tonight’s special election in a ruby-red north Mississippi district, but just fell short of the 50 percent of the vote necessary to avoid a runoff.With 459 of 462 precincts reporting, Childers had 49 percent of the vote to Davis’ 47 percent. The Associated Press reported that the race will be heading to a runoff, which will be held on May 13.
The NRCC spent about 300K on ads, the DCCC about half that. It looks like Rotten was right — the DCCC should have spent more. This would have been a huge — HUGE, Rochester — pick-up for Democrats. It still might end up being one, of course, but it would have been to close the deal last night.
Nevertheless, this is encouraging news for Democrats and will force the NRCC to spend more of their money in the run-off.
I’m not sure “could of” or “should of” plays here. Who knows and the article linked to does not present the electorial information to make that assessment. Anyone know how this Candidate actually plays in the District?
Bottom line - this presents an opportunity to continue to bleed the NRCC dry continuing in Mississippi through November.
Plus they still might win the run-off.
Strategically, the DCCC wants to bleed the NRCC dry so they are electorally ineffective in November. This is part of that strategy and it seems to be working.
Ultimately - less money in the NRCC helps our Dem Candidates in WNY in November.
You’re right — there’s no way of guessing that spending an extra 100K might have translated into a few hundred extra votes even though that that is normally the case in elections like this.
I bow to your superior political knowledge here.
All bow before the superior wisdom of the FAILbots at the DCCC. They spent exactly, precisely the right amount of money in this race to lose by a whisker. What clever clogs they are! Because now they get to pour in twice as much money as they spent in the last election, in a R+10 district, where the R’s in the district have just been given an tremendous wakeup call. That will bleed the NRCC dry, indeed!
I stand fully corrected and will now slink away.
Actually, the special election will bleed the NRCC further. I suspect the NRCC to spend at least as much as the DCCC In this one and since they have so much less, that’s to the DCCC’s advantage.
The “bleed the NRCC” strategy isn’t dumb. It’s just that an outright win would have been great.
WOW - A double dose of cynicism (well if you count Exiles first retort not the second reponse)
No correction Rotten just providing a different perspective.
I would have liked to have won the seat last night but frankly I don’t know anything about the candidate - how he resonates in the district. I have no first hand knowledge about this race and am dependent on various pundits spin.
I’m pleased the DCCC provided resources in Mississippi. I wonder how Dean’s 50 State strategy plays here as well. If there is a party infrastructure.
Frankly I think there is a lot more in play here than how much the DCCC did or didn’t contribute.
For the record, I think the DCCC was smart to contest this in the first place. And I think small ad buys in what seem to be longshot races are very, very smart. But, man, I bet they wish they’d spent a little more.
It’s going to be really interesting to see how all of this develops in other seemingly longshot special elections and through the general. The bottom line is that this race and IL-14 underscore the potential for large Democratic pick-ups in the House.
Yep - I agree. I think there is more going one here than simply a DCCC spend. Is there organization and infrastructure in Mississippi? (I don’t know)
I have a different view, obviously, and expound on it here:
http://www.fighting29th.com/2008/04/failers.html
I don’t totally disagree with your logic, Rotten, but expecting the Democratic leader to come in and disband the town Democratic committees is laughable. Are you a member of your town committee? I am, and just getting 5 people to show up is a struggle. fire them, and what do you have to take their place. Ain’t nobody waitin, dog like, at the door to replace them. Ain’t nobody waitin to replace Joe, either. So, put yer money where yer mouth is, my fine man. We need intelligent, informed people such as you, and by not participating, you perpetuate the “Fail-a-tron” which you rail against.
I’ve got to second everything that ladkiddo is saying here.
I realize that there’s a couple bit elephants in the room on this — the DCCC’s failure to throw money at Massa/Kuhl (which was dumb) and the MCDC’s decision not to run a candidate for County Exec (which was even dumber).
But calling two groups “failbots” when they’ve both just experienced big gains in elections (MCDC picked up 2 seats in November) just strikes me as arrogant and misinformed.
Sorry, probably wasn’t clear in what I wrote. I expect the head of the MCDC to resign, not town committees to be disbanded. Generally, I expect action in the face of failure, not inaction and dissembling. Say what you will about Mr Minarik, he saw a problem and made an effort to acknowledge and solve it.
Also, just to be clear, God Bless the Democratic town committees — really. It’s hard out there in the ‘burbs. I’m not criticizing them.
I don’t agree with your point that there’s no suitable replacement for Mr Morelle. If he resigns, I’m sure someone would take his job. If not, perhaps the ensuing chaos would wake some people up.
(Also, nice to see that you know about the Fail-a-Tron. That was an early version of the Fail-o-Tron 6000. The Fail-a-Tron was a less successful prototype powered by the sweat of pimply nerds who were rejected when asking girls out for dates. It turns out that the Fail-o-Tron was more successful because bitter tears of disappointment are more powerful than flop sweat of rejection. )
Rotten - there has to be more than mets the eye in Mendon. I mean is the Irondequoit committee still around or did Steve swoop in and disband them after they lost. It isn’t always about some imagined efficiency
Greece GOP and Beebe? Webster GOP and Gumina?
It’s an old bully tactic to single some group out to get others back into line. I really don’t read a whole lot more into it than that. I am willing to accept that the particular committee, Mendon, was picked arbitrarily in service of Minarik’s greater purpose, and it could just as well have been some other town.
I get the bullying tactic what is the benefit here. So we get the other groups back in line by keeping the same people? Most of Mendon will be back in the GOP committee. I guess the Irondequoit committee is still intact.
What really changed here?
but
Whoops-my bad, bought the wrong vowel. Where’s Pat Sajak (sp?) when you need him?
[...] In yesterday’s most controversial post, we discussed Democrats’ near-victory in the reddest of red territory — Mississippi’s first Congressional district. The folks at TPM Election Central have some more info on the race that has possible implications for local races: Both Childers and Davis are strong social conservatives, so it might be useful to look at the major issue dividing them: Iraq, with Childers supporting a timetable for withdrawal and Davis in favor of staying. [...]
[...] - we had this discussion a while [...]