Money isn’t everything
After perusing the various posts today about which campaigns have raised the most money and who is facing a wealthy opponent, I decided to look at the 2004 elections to see if there were any lessons to glean from it. From opensecrets.org:
Almost as soon as Election Day concluded, one thing was certain: Money won big in the 2004 elections.
In 95 percent of House races and 91 percent of Senate races that had been decided by mid-day today, the candidate who spent the most money won, according to a post-election analysis by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. The findings are based on figures reported Oct. 13 to the Federal Election Commission.
Does this mean democracy is for sale? I hope not. I think it means the message has to get out there somehow and media ad buys are a big part of it, but it’s certainly not everything. Other things come into play…incumbency, the issues, organization, etc.
If you are a candidate running for an open seat, check this out:
money was also decisive when two newcomers squared off in open seat races. The top spender in House open seat contests won 84 percent of the time.
Does this mean money won or the candidate that resonated the most with voters got the most donations? Self-financed candidates’ results should answer this question:
Tuesday’s elections did not go well for self-financed candidates. Only one candidate aided by $1 million or more in personal funds won.
I think this bodes well for candidates like Democrat Jon Powers, who is running for Congress in NY-26. The seat is open with Rep. Tom Reynolds’ recent retirement announcement, but Powers’ main Democratic opponent, Jack Davis, is mostly self-financed and has already run and lost…twice. Here is a look at Davis from 2004:
Top Self-Funded House Candidates
($1 million or more)NY26
John R. Davis Jr
D
$1,157,280* Based on data released electronically by the Federal Election Commission on Nov. 2, 2004.
Despite spending millions, Davis still lost. The connection just wasn’t there. One thing Powers has going for him is his grassroots organization, like another candidate from 2004 who was outspent and yet went on to win:
The biggest spender, by far, of personal funds in this election cycle was Blair Hull (D), who invested $28.7 million into his Illinois Senate race. He lost in the primary to the eventual winner of the seat, Barack Obama.
I think this shows that money isn’t everything. Yes, the vast majority of the 2004 elections were won by those who spent the most money, but in open seats that number declined by 11% (from 95% to 84% in House races). Candidates like Barack Obama demonstrated that grassroots organization, a willingness to get out and converse with voters and speak to issues that resonate with the voters, that is the type of connection that wins races. With Powers’ recent surge in individual contributions and 6 out of 7 county endorsements, he not only shows the momentum in fundraising, Powers has momentum with the people.Â
Money may make the world go around, but candidates of the people prove it’s not everything.
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