Complete control for Maffei
A set of polls conducted for Syracuse Mayor Matt Driscoll (when he was considering getting into the race for NY-25) show Maffei comfortably ahead of his (then) possible Republican competitors (from the Post-Standard via TheWalshWatch):
A summary of the poll results from Global Strategy Group, obtained by The Post-Standard, showed Maffei leading Cappuccilli, 41 percent to 29 percent. About 30 percent were undecided in the poll of likely general election voters conducted Feb. 16 to Feb. 20.
The same poll asked about a head-to-head election between Maffei and Republican Randy Wolken, the president of the Manufacturers Association of Central New York, who has since dropped out of the race. In that matchup, Maffei led 41 percent to 25 percent, with 34 percent undecided.
No word on how Maffei does against Dale Sweetland or punk rocker David Gay, the two Republicans who are currently in the race.
FYI: all of the titles of my posts about NY-25 will make some kind of reference to punk rock songs as long as David Gay is in the race.
That was a DCCC poll, so like all party polls it is taken with a goal of showing that the Democrat is unbeatable. Nothing wrong with that — it’s the DCCC’s job. But when you consider Maffei’s lackluster fundraising and campaigning last cycle, the worst thing he can do is assume that he won’t have a major challenger in the fall. Maffei needs to raise some serious coin and plan a serious campaign. NY-25 isn’t a sure thing for any Democrat if there’s a Republican candidate with any kind of a track record.
Maffei’s fundraising will be better this cycle, he’ll get more help from the DCCC, and, most importantly, he won’t be running against a beloved incumbent who is seen as a moderate. My honest opinion is that this will be a cakewalk.
I hope you’re right, but I also hope that the Maffei campaign won’t sit back and do very little because they expect to win. 7 months is a long time, and unknown candidates can sometimes run surprisingly good campaigns. Hillary Clinton just learned that lesson.
I just don’t want to see complacency in his campaign. Cakewalk or not - I hope Maffei plays to win decisively as opposed to playing not to lose.
I met Maffei for the 1st time 2 weeks ago, at a house party in Syracuse. I came away with the strong impression that he takes NOTHING for granted, even though no challenger had emerged yet at that time. I also met his fundraising staffer and she is capable. They are on track to raise enough money to advertise in both TV markets, which he told me was his critical failing in ‘06… not having enough money for good TV in Rochester. Hey, you Penfield and Webster people, somebody host a house party for Dan Maffei and make sure it is announced here at RT so we can come out and get behind this guy! I would do it myself but I live in 26th.