Evan Dawson of Channel 13 has more on Bellavia (we wrote about this Iraq war vet’s entry into the race — and the opposition he may face within his party earlier today). Here’s a sample:

“This is a chance to have en election that the entire country will watch,” Bellavia asserts. “We have an opportunity to have an honest debate about something for which our men and women are literally fighting and dying. You know, not fools protesting in the streets, but a real debate. A serious debate about the war.”

He will lose that debate in NY-26. If he’s really going to run on the war, the GOP needs to get him out of the race before he gets traction in a GOP primary. The 100 years in Iraq stuff is just the kind of thing that may appeal to GOP primary voters but turn off nearly everyone else in the district. He’s written some pretty controversial editorials too. Bottom line: this guy would probably win if the only people who voted were the commenters in the D&C Chili blog, but finding support much beyond that will be tough unless he talks about other things.

Here’s the Evans-Novak report on NY-26:

New York-26: Rep. Tom Reynolds (R), perhaps facing electoral defeat, will retire this year after an ignominious stint as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Fittingly, he looks to be leaving his district to the Democrats.

Reynolds’ district in Western New York voted for Bush in 2004, but Reynolds barely held on in 2006 after revelations about his handling of the Mark Foley scandal.

Democrats have two strong potential candidates: wealthy businessman and two-time candidate Jack Davis, and Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, who was already engaged in a challenge to Reynolds. Davis could fund his own race, and Powers has backing among liberal bloggers who showed real success raising funds in 2006.

Republicans failed to get their top candidate, State Sen. George Maziarz. State Assemblyman Jim Hayes is currently the leading Republican. Republicans have an enrollment edge here, but the sagging economy and the Democratic cash advantage tilt this one towards the Democrats. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

They list NY-25 as Leaning Democratic Takeover as well.