Bellavia in in NY-26
From News10 Rochester:
David Bellavia a local Iraq war hero confirmed to News 10NBC that he will run for Congress, which would make for an interesting race against Jon Powers, an Iraq war hero from Erie County. It could be one of the most watched races of the election season.
Staff Sergeant David Bellavia lives in Batavia and is a Republican and Conservative. Captain Powers grew up in Clarence and is a Democrat. Both men want to fill the seat Tom Reynolds is leaving.
Bellavia’s wife is a reporter for Channel 10, which is presumably why the station got the scoop on this.
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Good luck to his team. He’s the guy who did the commercials for Ari Fleisher and “Freedom’s Watch” a while back saying that if we didn’t continue the war, he wasted his time, and babbling about how wonderful Bush was.
Yeah, that’s a popular opinion. Does that mean he’ll get 27% of the vote, like Bush’s popularity poll figures?
That will be enough - he will win by 7% over the Reid/Pelosi 20% approval rating
The Reid/Pelosi approval ratings are not much of a factor. Remember — their ratings are _lower_ among liberals than among other groups. And those liberals will sure as shinola vote Democrat regardless whether or not they tell Gallup they support Reid/Pelosi.
Does that include the one in five who say they’ll sit out if their nominee (Clinton/Obama) loses?
My son in college has a number of friends that are all actively working to get Obama elected. All of them have said if Senator Clinton manages to work some back-door deal at the convention, they’re not only sitting this election out, they’re likely done with the process all together. The political system is just as they had been led to believe..With the current mathematical odds of her winning the nomination at around 5%, yet she remains adamant about; “staying in it to win it”, it’s hard for him to tell them otherwise.
That’s a separate issue, of course, but an important one. I’m not sure, though, that we’d see the same reaction from Hillary supporters if Obama wins as we might from some (especially younger) Obama supporters if Hillary wins.
Convince yourself of that Elmer. Now the real lessons of the war are about to unfold…
Okay, I crunched the numbers on this. Typically about 10% of Democrats vote for the Republican (it was 11% in 2004). So if half of Democrats are Obama supporters and half are Hillary supporters (which is what the polls show), then you’d expect about 20% of the supporters of the losing candidate to vote for McCain in the general (one half of 20% is 10%). So, as with most polls, this tells us exactly what we wudl expect.
[...] We told you recently that Iraq war veteran David Bellavia had decided to run in NY-26.  It sounds like me might not be the favorite candidate of the local Republican pary (from the Politico): Bellavia’s decision raises the possibility that two Iraq war veterans could challenge each other in a general election. Jonathan Powers, who served as an Army captain, is one of the Democrats’ leading nominees – and has been a vocal critic of the Iraq war. If Powers and Bellavia were the nominees, the Iraq war would likely become a central focus of the campaign. [...]
[...] stuff. First Channel 10 gets the scoop on Bellavia’s entry into the NY-26 race, and Exile makes the connection: Bellavia’s wife is [...]