The battle for NY-25
With Jim Walsh retiring, we can expect NY-25 to leap to the very top of targeted seats for Democrats. It has a Cook PVI of +3.4 Democratic.  That means the district is 3.4% more Democratic than the average district. Prior to the announcement that Walsh would retire, DailyKos had the district listed as the ninth most likely Democratic pick-up (this was a few months ago before some other recent retirements).
A race that seems quite comparable to the one for NY-25 is NJ-3, which is also an open seat (with incumbent Republican Jim Saxton retiring) and has a Cook PVI of +3 Democratic. The Politico lists NJ-3 as the second best pick-up opportunity for Democrats.  So I would expect NY-25 to come in at second or third in the next of ratings of Democratic pick-up opportunities.
The bottom line is that things are looking up, way up, for the Dan Maffei campaign. NY-25 will be one of the most hotly contested races in the whole country. Expect the DCCC to dump a ton of money into the race. We can probably expect the RNCC to do the same, assuming they eventually have money to dump.
The big question is who the Republican candidate will be. We’ve heard the name Bill Fitzpatrick, the longtime DA of Onondaga County, bandied about, but we’ve heard nothing firm about him or anyone else on the Republican side getting into the race.  Walsh’s retirement seems to have caught everyone off-guard. And his late announcement, combined with his recent independent voting streak, might be interpreted as telling the Republican party to go Cheney itself.  If so, better late than never for a man who has certainly displayed a lot of decency as of late (if not during the 109th Congress).
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Wow, I can’t imagine the look on NRCC Chair Tom Cole’s face when he heard this. They might as well cede all their western ny seats to us, because, as you pointed out, they’re not likely to have the resources to compete in all the districts in which we’re competitive. Sweet…
It’s official - Post Standard reports Walsh is out.