The “theory of change”
In the comments to my earlier post on the contrast in styles between the three major Democratic candidates, Rotten points us to a really good article in The American Prospect about effecting real change in America. It captures my own perspective more eloquently that I am able to express it. It begins with the idea that we should think strategically (not an original idea but I haven’t seen it put this way before):
The phrase “theory of change” is a bit of jargon that I first encountered in the philanthropic and non-profit world, where it refers to a fairly new way of evaluating the effectiveness of projects by drawing out the underlying assumptions about how they lead to social change. It’s a useful innovation, because often differences that seem to be about ideology or effectiveness are really just different ideas about the process that will lead to change, though unspoken and unquestioned. (For example, a foundation dedicated to ending hunger might choose between giving $100,000 to a food bank that feeds 100 people a day, or to a legal group that sues the state over Food Stamp eligibility rules, or to a national group that organizes poor people to push Congress for a total Food Stamp overhaul. At the end of a year, only the food bank would have results to show, but that doesn’t mean it’s the only effective approach — the potential results from the other two approaches to change are much greater, if the legal and political strategies are sound.)
The author (Mark Schmitt, a very savvy observer) suggests that we should view the different candidates’ strategies through this lens:
As an observer of politics, and commenter on it, I almost entirely share Krugman’s and Edwards’ diagnoses. I appreciate the conflictual nature of politics. I don’t think there’s some cross-partisan truth; I understand that the Republican conservatives are intractable. I know those advantaged by the current structure of power are determined to preserve it, and the well-funded campaign to destroy any possibility of progressive governance will be as intantaneous and intense as anything in 1993. I’ve tried to spell this out as clearly and aggressively as possible, especially to counter the tendency among elites to imagine that the good old days when Republicans and Democrats worked together selflessly and put ideology aside to solve the nation’s problems are coming back. (Or that they were so great to start with.)
But let’s take a slightly different angle on the charge that Obama is “naïve” about power and partisanship. Suppose you were as non-naïve about it as I am — but your job wasn’t writing about politics, it was running for president? What should you do? In that case, your responsibility is not merely to describe the situation exactly, but to find a way to subvert it. In other words, perhaps we are being too literal in believing that “hope” and bipartisanship are things that Obama naively believes are present and possible, when in fact they are a tactic, a method of subverting and breaking the unified conservative power structure. Claiming the mantle of bipartisanship and national unity, and defining the problem to be solved (e.g. universal health care) puts one in a position of strength, and Republicans would defect from that position at their own risk. The public, and younger voters in particular, seem to want an end to partisanship and conflictual politics, and an administration that came in with that premise (an option not available to Senator Clinton), would have a tremendous advantage, at least for a moment.
Give it a read. I believe that we are nearing a watershed moment in the history of the progressive movement. We all know that we need change — specifically, we need to fix the health care system and limit corporate influence in our political system. To say this will be a monumental struggle is an understatement. We need to think — and at times, argue — about our strategy. Because that’s what successful movements do.




Fantastic post.
Not for one minute do I believe that Hillary is talking about the same change as Obama and Edwards. I think Obama was very nicely pointing out the fact that Bush leaving office is probably enough change for some.
But from Hillary I don’t buy it at all. She’s too far inside Washington–an obvious drawback to all the experience she claims to have. She owes too many people, she takes too much corporate money.
I truly believe Edwards believes in the kind of change this country needs, but for me, is so uninspiring, that I don’t believe he will accomplish what needs to be done.
Obama’s win in Iowa, as he pointed out himself, already represents the change he’s talking about. HOPE. BRINGING PEOPLE TOGETHER. That’s the change we need.
And Obama talks about something else that is vital to the change he wants to bring about. He wants to bring people back into THEIR government. So, even with unpopular, but necessary, ideas, Obama just might be able to inspire “the people” to do their part in all this…stay connected and in touch with their representatives and that will lead to Congress “getting it”. Obama can inspire people to demand better of themselves, their communities, their representatives and Obama himself.
“specifically, we need to fix the health care system and limit corporate influence in our political system”
So who are the Dem candidates who are most closely in sync with these ideals?
Edwards seems to be in my opinion.