The elections in 2008 will be all immigrant-bashing all the time. The strategy is already paying dividends for Republicans:

It’s hard to imagine a more miserable political climate for Republicans — hurting nationally because of the unpopularity of President Bush and the Iraq war, and even more in Ohio because of the economy and local factors that have knocked the GOP off its game over the past two years.

But Latta, running in a special election for a suburban Toledo-based House district, crafted a message — echoed by party officials — that bashed illegal immigrants who live here, drive here or get government-funded health care.

He won by 14 points. Democrats and Republicans alike credit the immigration message for the big margin.

You can bet Randy Kuhl, Tom Reynolds, and Jim Walsh were watching. And you can bet that they will pull out every nasty, racist, xenophobic trick in the Republican playbook next fall.

Here’ s something interesting, though: the Republicans need to avoid immigrant-bashing in the presidential election in order to be competitive in Arizona and New Mexico. Here’s E. J. Dionne (whom I usually despise but he’s right this time):

This contest (the Ohio election mentioned above) points to an important but little-noticed disconnect between how immigration is likely to play in the 2008 congressional elections and how it will affect the presidential campaign. A Latino backlash against the Republicans could hurt their nominee for president, even as a backlash against illegal immigration could help some Republicans running for Congress.

In the presidential election, Latino votes could well tip Western states that voted for President Bush in 2004 to the Democrats, who are enjoying a Latino surge. A study released last week by the Pew Hispanic Center found that in 2007, 57 percent of registered voters who are Hispanic identified themselves as Democrats, compared with 23 percent who are Republicans — a 34-point advantage. A year ago, the Democratic Latino advantage was just 21 points. Immigration has a lot to do with this. Hispanics gave Democrats a 41 percent to 14 percent edge on dealing with illegal immigration.

This shift will matter in New Mexico, where people of Hispanic origin account for 42.6 percent of the state’s population, and also in Arizona, (25.3 percent Hispanic); Nevada (19.7 percent) and Colorado (17.1 percent).

Yet the Hispanic population is quite small in the limited number of highly competitive districts that will determine control of the House.