Battle for State Senate Begins
This morning it is widely expected Sen. Jim Wright (R) will announce his resignation from the New York State Senate. Wright represents the 48th District near Watertown. As Liz Benjamin reported yesterday, with the Republicans holding a slim 2 seat Senate majority, the battle for Wright’s seat is going to be brutal.
The loss of this seat would loosen the Senate Republicans’ already-tenuous grip on the majority, putting them one heart attack away from a tie in the chamber, which would be broken by Democratic LG David Paterson.
snip
Speculation is already swirling about who will run for Wright’s seat. Names mentioned include Republican Assembly members Will Barclay and Dede Scozzafava. Barclay, whose father once held Wright’s seat, is the favorite.
On the Democratic side, the likely candidate is Assemblyman Darrel Aubertine.
Liz speculates the Governor will call a special election to coincide with the Feb. 5 Presidential Primary.
For more analysis on this race, jump below the fold.
Wright’s district is a somewhat hard to evaluate, given he hasn’t had an opponent in his last three elections. However, I decided to check out the 2006 fundraising for the possible Dem and Rep candidates.
Liz reports Will Barclay (R)Â is the favorite on the Rep side, while Darrel Aubertine (D) is the fav on the Dem side.
In 2006, Barclay raised about $140,000. As of July 2007, Barclay had about $40,000 cash on hand.
In contrast, Aubertine raised only $49,000 for his 2006 race. As of July 2007, Aubertine had about $22,000 cash on hand.
That’s about a 2-1 advantage in fundraising and cash on hand for the republicans. What’s more, Wright’s districtis heavily republican, about 46% republican to be exact. A mere 27% of voters in Wright’s district are dems.
While the registration numbers are obviously against the dems, there is reason for hope.
Assemblyman Barclay’s current district has virtually the same registration breakdown, 45% Rep and 26% Dem. Yet Barclay only managed to win reelection in 2006 by a 55% to 45% margin.
Because this is probably going to be a special election (even if it falls on primary day) the turnout will be low. Low turnout gives us the upper hand. We’re much more likely to win a heavily republican district when the turnout is low, because each vote carries greater weight.
In any event, it will be interesting to see what happens here. Wright is expected to make his announcement at 10 am this morning.
We’ll be following this closely.
UPDATE: Despite his low approval ratings, I thought it worth noting Gov Spitzer has raised almost $4,000,000 from the end of Jan 07 through July 07. He has over $1 million left on hand. Hopefully he’ll be able to spread some of that around to help with this race.
As I said in an earlier comment on a different thread, it would be very helpful if all RT writers would identify politicians with an R or a D the very first time the politician is mentioned. I don’t have the same knowledge as the writer, and I don’t know the political affiliation of every politician.
In this article by Jrviper, which is a fine article in all other respects, I had to read down to the 2nd paragraph to infer (not be told, but infer) that Sen. Wright is an R. Unacceptable writing. We readers need to be told what party politicians belong too immediately the first time you mention their name.
Sorry about that. I’m still knocking the rust off the trusty posting skills. I’ve updated the post with Wright’s party affiliation in the 1st paragraph.
Thanks for keeping me on my toes!
Paige keeps all of us on out toes, and we’re better for it.
Great article, nice analysis. Man, it’s good to have you back!
Darrel Aubertine is a god in the North Country. I mean, how many Democrats are dairy farmers?
The fundraising is misleading simply because Aubertine ran unopposed and Barclay was in a tight raise.
[...] state senate district 48, and how potentially flippable to Dem control it is. Our own jrviper did an analysis on that district earlier this [...]