More 2008 numbers
This isn’t local, but people have told me they’d like to see more about the kinds of numbers that indicate how the 2008 elections will go. Earlier, I told you that the Democrats were currently swamping the Republicans in terms of fundraising. It also looks like they’re developing a big advantage in terms of enthusiasm and campaign infrastructure:
[Democrats] will have more volunteers, more passion.â€Representatives for Democratic Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) are cagey about the precise number of boots on the ground they have in the early states, but it’s widely thought to be at least five times what the Republicans have.
And even beyond the Democrats’ well-financed top two candidates, the contrast is stark. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has more than 100 staffers in Iowa, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has over 70 and Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd has 60.
Of all the Republicans, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has the most aides heading into the caucuses: 17.
(snip)
In terms of numbers, when I read about Republican events, it seems that a big crowd is 50 to 100 people,†(New Hampshire Democratic Chairwoman) Sullivan said. “For the Democrats, 200 to 500 is a big crowd.â€
These kinds of numbers are important. Hypothetical match-ups between various contenders don’t mean much (these polls currently favor Democrats as well, but I would encourage you to ignore them), because they reflect the opinions of voters who haven’t been following the issues much. A lot of these voters will change their minds.
Look at fundraising numbers, the number of people who show up at events, and campaign infrastructure. Right now, those are the best measures of which party will fare better in th 2008 presidential election. And right now, all those numbers point in the Democrats’ direction.
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