You cannot create your own facts by ignoring data
This post is simply about measuring sectarian violence - specifically with regards to the Petraeus testimony to Congress. You can see this play out in the comment storm in our recent posts over the MoveOn ad controversy. General Petraeus is lying, the MoveOn add denigrates the troops blah blah blah. Well, bunk to all that.
Here is the deal with Petraeus and his testimony.
Sectarian violence is down - was one of Petraeus’ messages. Did he lie? Well, depends on how he calculated the numbers. So when you don’t count or exclude certain events - you open yourself to criticism. read the excerpt below. What do you think? Do we count everyone?
Talking Point Memo FOILed the report. You can see that here. All you “numbers people” enjoy yourselves with the analysis.
Certainly no one can enjoy this - violence was bucketed and not all violence was counted. In my mind - you can’t separate it. In the end we are picking and choosing what to count as violence. Since we don’t have independent media on the ground outside the comforts of the Green Zone (there are people reporting - isn’t wide spread) How do we know?
If you want to bucket numbers ask yourself this - how much violence was in Iraq in March 2002? How much now?
From the TPMs post the executive summary is here.
Interestingly, attacks against “same-sect civilians,” U.S. forces, the Iraqi government or Iraqi security forces “are excluded and not defined as sectarian attacks.” So even though Sunni insurgent groups loathe the Shiite-controlled government, insurgent attacks on it aren’t considered sectarian violence.
Additionally, MNF-I calculates that the use of suicide vests, car bombs and IEDs strongly indicate Sunni perpetrators; and reasons that attacks using those methods on “medical centers, market places or religious symbols, mosques, religious gatherings, stores/restaurants, and housing areas” typically indicate sectarian violence, since those entities are primarily used by “one ethnic/sectarian group.” MNF-I acknowledges that in these attacks “there may have been Sunnis killed or injured,” and though it says it excludes “same-sect civilians” from the tally, these are counted as sectarian attacks.
For executions, murders and kidnappings — situations in which sectarianism may be difficult to determine — MNF-I says it uses “host nation” reporting in addition to its own. Many media and non-governmental organizations consider information on casualties released by the Iraqi ministries to be self-serving, misleading or contradictory.
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