We, as well as others, have been sharing our beliefs why Nachbar, and the looming primary battle in the 29th, don’t help. Here is a series of opinions on why.

Look - people have a right to run for office and engage in political battles. But the key to battle is understanding the terrain. Students of the Battle of Gettysburg know the value of the high ground. As I recall, the Union Cavalry guy Buford forced Lee to deploy, and allowed the Union time to seize the high ground. The rest, shall we say, is history.

Mr Nachbar can spend his money how he deems necessary. HOWEVER, the hallmark of a sound businessman is wise investment - this one isn’t. He doesn’t understand the terrain - specifically the NY29th. As a result, his efforts will be for naught. Trouble is, his efforts could cost us a seat in Congress.

This is a series of short posts that highlight why I think Mr. Nachbar is wrong for the 29th. Comment away on the assertions in the post. In a couple of hours I’ll have another snippet.

Nachbar loses a Primary- in a primary, the dedicated Democratic voters show up. The rank and file voters don’t show up. I know, I’ve worked NY State primary elections, and we celebrate when we get a voter. Yes, I know 2008 is a Presidential year, but that primary is February - the Congressional primary is in September: 7 months later.

Nachbar loses the high information voter because they are already engaged in the process. So, to win, his task is to convince people to vote for him from the group who don’t support him now and will likely turnout in droves to vote against him. With County committees endorsing Massa, the party foot soldiers are already working on campaigns. How is this going to happen? What special silver bullet message will be delivered?

Dedicated Democrats who, by and large, already know Massa, will not be voting for Nachbar. I believe this to be true in Monroe County as well as in the Southern Tier.

Primary / General Election Monroe County Strategy- focusing on Monroe County primarily is wrong. Yes, there is the highest concentration of of Democrats here (and in Northern Ontario County). Yes, Barends (2004) and Massa (2006) both won Monroe County in the general. However, the race isn’t decided in Monroe. Someone from the Southern Tier is used to one of their own in the seat - be it Amo or Randy. Check out Rottenchester’s analysis. Nachbar’s assertion that the Republicans will stay home doesn’t seem plausible.

I can only imagine the thought in the Southern Tier will be this: we don’t need another millionaire in Congress representing the middle class. Frankly, I’ve had that thought myself.