We’ve said before that we believe it woud be very difficult for someone from the northern part of NY-29 to win the district. Fighting29th has a more detailed analysis of why he also believes this is true.

Local factors often take political pros by surprise, because they’re something that’s difficult to measure, and because, frankly, a lot of political pros live in Washington, DC. But local factors can be extremely powerful. Case in point: political observers are calling a recent special election for Georgia’s 10th Congressional district “one of the bigger upsets in recent congressional history. ” Paul Broun — a physician from Athens, GA — appears to have defeated state Sen. Jim Whitehead — from Augusta, GA — by a few hundred votes. Whitehead had all the major endorsements, much more money, you name it.

He lost for one reason: geography. I lived in Athens and people there think they’re different from the rest of the state — more educated, more sophisticated (I agree with them) — and, for reasons I don’t understand, reserve special contempt for Augusta.

The runoff quickly became a battle between the district’s two bases: Augusta and Athens. While Whitehead won 73 percent of his home base in Augusta, Broun won 89 percent of the vote in Athens and carried most of the other counties in the district. Turnout in the Athens area was unusually high for a special election runoff.

Broun framed the race as a geographic battle and accused Whitehead of showing “great disdain” for Athens. For his part, Whitehead made little attempt to court the Athens vote, even though he is an alumnus of the city’s University of Georgia. He skipped most of the debates in the city, and at a district forum, he told Augusta voters that he was considered “Satan incarnated” in Athens.

And even though Broun is a stalwart conservative, many Democrats appear to have turned out to vote for him because Whitehead made little effort to court voters outside his home base.

Sound familiar? One part of the district hates the other part of the district and votes accordingly.

It can and will happen in NY-29 if one of the candidates in the general is from Pittsford. The situation may seem reversed — with Monroe County the part that sees itself as more sophisticated than the Tier — but Athens sees itself as a beleaguered minority in Georgia and the Southern Tier sees itself the same way in New York State. And they’ll likely vote accordingly.