Comments on: Jobless rate falls in the City? http://rochesterturning.com/2007/03/29/jobless-rate-falls-in-the-city/ turning the tide upstate Mon, 01 Dec 2008 20:03:49 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Paige http://rochesterturning.com/2007/03/29/jobless-rate-falls-in-the-city/#comment-30963 Paige Thu, 29 Mar 2007 23:07:18 +0000 http://rochesterturning.com/2007/03/29/jobless-rate-falls-in-the-city/#comment-30963 In the simplest form, lets say you survey 100 households in Rochester, and you find there are 10 adults unemployed out of 156 adults in those households. The unemployment rate is ... well, you do the math. As you can see, the size of the population doesn't enter into this calculation at all. In reality, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (where I once was employed) uses a more complicated method that takes household survey data as above, and adjust for demographics, adjusts for non-response, and adjusts for other things that I can’t think of, and once you do all that complicated math, you get a number that represents the unemployment rate. Once again, the size of the population isn't needed. In the simplest form, lets say you survey 100 households in Rochester, and you find there are 10 adults unemployed out of 156 adults in those households. The unemployment rate is … well, you do the math. As you can see, the size of the population doesn’t enter into this calculation at all.

In reality, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (where I once was employed) uses a more complicated method that takes household survey data as above, and adjust for demographics, adjusts for non-response, and adjusts for other things that I can’t think of, and once you do all that complicated math, you get a number that represents the unemployment rate. Once again, the size of the population isn’t needed.

]]> By: Paige http://rochesterturning.com/2007/03/29/jobless-rate-falls-in-the-city/#comment-30961 Paige Thu, 29 Mar 2007 22:49:13 +0000 http://rochesterturning.com/2007/03/29/jobless-rate-falls-in-the-city/#comment-30961 Incomplete link. The link above was how BLS computes employment numbers. <a href="http://www.census.gov/cps/" rel="nofollow">Here is the link</a> on how the unemployment percent is computed. Again, it comes from a survey. Incomplete link. The link above was how BLS computes employment numbers. Here is the link on how the unemployment percent is computed. Again, it comes from a survey.

]]> By: J http://rochesterturning.com/2007/03/29/jobless-rate-falls-in-the-city/#comment-30960 J Thu, 29 Mar 2007 22:48:50 +0000 http://rochesterturning.com/2007/03/29/jobless-rate-falls-in-the-city/#comment-30960 Thanks Paige, I wasn't sure how these numbers were computed since this is a bit out of my area of expertise. I agree that a 0.2% change isn't very significant but it seems like a headline for for Maggie to tout. I will say that it seems odd that population isn't included in an unemployment estimate however... that seems rather basic, but I suppose you'd always need updated census information. Thanks Paige,

I wasn’t sure how these numbers were computed since this is a bit out of my area of expertise. I agree that a 0.2% change isn’t very significant but it seems like a headline for for Maggie to tout. I will say that it seems odd that population isn’t included in an unemployment estimate however… that seems rather basic, but I suppose you’d always need updated census information.

]]> By: Paige http://rochesterturning.com/2007/03/29/jobless-rate-falls-in-the-city/#comment-30959 Paige Thu, 29 Mar 2007 22:38:11 +0000 http://rochesterturning.com/2007/03/29/jobless-rate-falls-in-the-city/#comment-30959 The Bureau of Labor Statistics computes national and local unemployment statistics from a survey. You can read the details <a href="http://www.bls.gov/sae/790over.htm" rel="nofollow">here</a> if you want, but the bottom line is that it doesn't matter if the population goes up or down, because the size of the population is not used in these estimates. Further, I would definitely caution against making any big deal out of a one month change from 5.3% to 5.1%. I don't know if that's within the level of noise of the survey, but I have a fundamental concern about reacting to relatively small one month changes. The Bureau of Labor Statistics computes national and local unemployment statistics from a survey. You can read the details here if you want, but the bottom line is that it doesn’t matter if the population goes up or down, because the size of the population is not used in these estimates.

Further, I would definitely caution against making any big deal out of a one month change from 5.3% to 5.1%. I don’t know if that’s within the level of noise of the survey, but I have a fundamental concern about reacting to relatively small one month changes.

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