NY-29: gains from 2004 to 2006 by county
This is a follow-up to BTP’s insightful election analysis post (link). I’ve been putting together some election results data from the NY-29 congressional election. Right now I’m focused on comparing 2006 to 2004. Where were gains made? The graph below is the percentage of votes for Kuhl, stratified by year and county (sorry for the 4 letter county abbreviations, but had to make it fit!). I sorted the counties by the percentage of votes for Kuhl in 2004.
Here is a link to the full size image. It’s good if the diamonds are below the circles, because that means a smaller percentage of voters voted for Kuhl in 2006 compared to 2004 in that particular county. As you can see, gains were made in all but 1 county. In some cases the difference was substantial (e.g., Yates).
It’s very nice to see the points creeping towards the 50% line…
Now, it should be noted that more people voted in 2004, as it was a presidential election year. Therefore, the voting population might be slightly different. Nevertheless, these are encouraging results.
I’ll look at comparisons between 2004 and 2006 in more detail in a future post.
Numerology…
There’s been a lot of poll analysis in the last couple of weeks. Today, Pollster.com posted a discussion of where their method of averaging available polls failed. The 29th was one of those races. No particular conclusions were drawn about……
I wasnt aware that Kuhl’s support in Cattaragus County rose higher in contrast to ‘04. I think Kuhl slipped roofies in their kool-aid.
Nice! I like how you show the data. Is this graph from that stats package you mentioned in response to my Excel graphs a couple days ago?
Also, is there any way to show this data weighted by county population? E.g. Monroe county would be bigger Catt would be smaller.
btp,
yes, I used R to create the graphs. It’s very powerful software, and it’s free!
Yes, I could easily make the size of the points proportional to the county size (bubble plot). I might give that a try and see how it looks.
I’m planning to combine data from several local congressional races to look at trends from 04 to 06
And so I sit. Clicking refresh every few seconds in anticipation of your update.
That’s funny. Look for it this weekend…
adderall abuse…
news…