Comments on: NY-29: Candidate performance by county (w/pretty graphs) http://rochesterturning.com/2006/11/25/ny-29-candidate-performance-by-county-wpretty-graphs/ turning the tide upstate Thu, 21 Aug 2008 05:50:23 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: bythepeople http://rochesterturning.com/2006/11/25/ny-29-candidate-performance-by-county-wpretty-graphs/#comment-3813 bythepeople Sun, 26 Nov 2006 20:34:10 +0000 http://rochesterturning.com/2006/11/25/ny-29-candidate-performance-by-county-wpretty-graphs/#comment-3813 Right-- that's sort of what I was getting at (poorly). The main reason manifested itself due to an aggregation of conditions. Can we identify what those individual and isolated reasons are? We'd be a long way towards mitigating the main reason next time. Meanwhile, I'll try to think of how to rephrase the above without all my 10-cent words. :-) Right– that’s sort of what I was getting at (poorly). The main reason manifested itself due to an aggregation of conditions. Can we identify what those individual and isolated reasons are? We’d be a long way towards mitigating the main reason next time. Meanwhile, I’ll try to think of how to rephrase the above without all my 10-cent words. :-)

]]> By: stlo7 http://rochesterturning.com/2006/11/25/ny-29-candidate-performance-by-county-wpretty-graphs/#comment-3812 stlo7 Sun, 26 Nov 2006 20:24:41 +0000 http://rochesterturning.com/2006/11/25/ny-29-candidate-performance-by-county-wpretty-graphs/#comment-3812 Knowing the main reason Massa lost and not at liberty to talk about it - there is a question begging to be asked. There is a main reason? A single cause? Actually there are probably several individual and isolated reasons that all contributed. Knowing the main reason Massa lost and not at liberty to talk about it - there is a question begging to be asked. There is a main reason? A single cause? Actually there are probably several individual and isolated reasons that all contributed.

]]> By: bythepeople http://rochesterturning.com/2006/11/25/ny-29-candidate-performance-by-county-wpretty-graphs/#comment-3808 bythepeople Sun, 26 Nov 2006 13:39:29 +0000 http://rochesterturning.com/2006/11/25/ny-29-candidate-performance-by-county-wpretty-graphs/#comment-3808 Yep. With that many factors, it's almost as "apples-to-oranges" as 2 consecutive congressional races can get. Knowing the main reason that Massa lost (and not at liberty to talk about it), it's also an exercise to see if there was any way I could predict it for "next time", whenever/whoever that might be. Yep. With that many factors, it’s almost as “apples-to-oranges” as 2 consecutive congressional races can get. Knowing the main reason that Massa lost (and not at liberty to talk about it), it’s also an exercise to see if there was any way I could predict it for “next time”, whenever/whoever that might be.

]]> By: Rottenchester http://rochesterturning.com/2006/11/25/ny-29-candidate-performance-by-county-wpretty-graphs/#comment-3806 Rottenchester Sun, 26 Nov 2006 03:51:50 +0000 http://rochesterturning.com/2006/11/25/ny-29-candidate-performance-by-county-wpretty-graphs/#comment-3806 Nice graphs. Yates cast ~6K votes in '06 so a tiny absolute change in votes can equal a large percentage change. Perhaps some sort of weighted graph might be helpful...but the reality is that comparative analysis in the 29th is hard because the changeover from Houghton to Kuhl was huge, the effect of 3rd party candidates is hard to factor out, and off-year vs. presidential year further muddies the '06/'04 comparison. Your 2nd graph is probably the most meaningful - Massa did a hell of a lot better than Barend, end of story. Nice graphs.

Yates cast ~6K votes in ‘06 so a tiny absolute change in votes can equal a large percentage change.

Perhaps some sort of weighted graph might be helpful…but the reality is that comparative analysis in the 29th is hard because the changeover from Houghton to Kuhl was huge, the effect of 3rd party candidates is hard to factor out, and off-year vs. presidential year further muddies the ‘06/’04 comparison. Your 2nd graph is probably the most meaningful - Massa did a hell of a lot better than Barend, end of story.

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