Strip down and get relaxed — to borrow disgraced Congressman Mark Foley’s now immortal words — while we discuss Tom Reynolds’ political future, or lack thereof. We know that Representative Alexander (whose page was the recipient of some of Foley’s mash notes) told Tom Reynolds about the messages Foley was sending to the young page and that:

Carl Forti, a spokesman for the GOP campaign organization, said Reynolds learned from Alexander that the parents did not want to pursue the matter, AP reported.

Okay, but did his parents explicitly tell Reynolds they wanted Foley to remain the head of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children? Somehow, I think not.

But we’re not here to focus on blame. The Republicans will divvy that up among themselves as they see fit. I think that, quite possibly, Reynolds is being served up as a sacrifice to placate the political Gods. Here’s why I think they’re doing it and why I think they’re smart to do it:

• 1. Reynolds is the only person Alexander claims to have told about this in many of the accounts of the story (Wash Post; ABC News). I’m sure he told other people — why only tell your campaign guy (Reynolds is head of the National Republican Campaign Committee)? Meanwhile, there’s been a blizzard of claims and subsequent retractions about how much Speaker Denny Hastert knew about it (here; here; and here). Clearly, Hastert will not go gentle into that good night. And he’s too big to be forced to against his will.
• 2. Someone has to take the fall here. It’s election season and if the whole Republican party gets blamed for it, they’ll lose big in November. There has to be a scapegoat.
• 3. Of all the higher ups in the Republican Congress, Reynolds is by far the most politically vulnerable. A recent poll showed him tied with challenger Jack Davis (he was actually two points behind but was with the Green party candidate — who was getting 8% and has now been kicked out of the face — inlcluded in th e poll). Even a whiff of involvement with a cover-up here will likely doom his reelection chances anyway.
• 4. And here’s the kicker, I think: Reynolds has an enormous war chest for his campaign his fall — nearly three million dollars on hand. He can give it all back to the NRCC if he drops out of the race for NY-26. There are needy Republican Congressmen out there who could use this money.

In the Maltese Falcon, Sam Spade said this about his reasons for turning in Brigid O’Shaughnessy: “Maybe some of them are unimportant - I won’t argue about that - but look at the number of them. And what have we got on the other side?” In this case it’s the fact that Reynolds is probably a pretty good head of the NRCC. Like Sam Spade, Denny Hastert and John Boehner may have some rotten nights after they’ve sent Reynolds over, but that’ll pass.

(Update: other people are thinking the same thing — just got word of a protest at 1 pm today outside Reynolds’ office in Greece. Update 2: Not that many people, I’m hearing that it was very sparsely attended.)