Reynolds, Davis locked up in a tight one
(Looks like it just got tighter)
From the comments (thank you theshelldog!), Channel 2 Buffalo has a Survey USA (probably the best polling outfit going, to judge by their record in 2004) poll out on NY-26:
45% Tom Reynolds (R)
43% Jack Davis (D)
8% Christine Murphy (Green)
4% Undecided
The dynamics of this race are pretty different than NY-25 or NY-28. I’ll bet Davis has well over 50% name recognition, since he’s run before and he’s spent millions on ads, so we can’t expect his numbers to improve the way we can expect Massa’s and Maffei’s to (as their name recognition numbers go up). But, still, this must be scaring the living PAC money out of Tom Reynolds.
[Update: Holy Crap! NY-26 competitive? That explains why I've seen so many pro-Reynolds and anti-Davis ads, and I barely watch TV. Another tidbit from the article:
On Tuesday, September 26th the New York State Board of Elections determined Green Party candidate Christine Murphy's candidacy to be invalid.
Whether that means Davis has 43+8=51% or not is to be seen. We'll get some hint soon from this, also from the article:
On Your Side has commissioned a new survey with the two remaining candidates. The results are expected next Thursday.
Dag nabit, deputy dawg! All of CNY & WNY appears to be in play, up and downticket, based on all the close Conrgressional races, and the internals from the state-level races I've heard of. -btp]
Well said.
and just think, with Spitzer and Hillary running away with their races, and Pirro fast-imploding behind, general dissatisfaction with Bush and the national Republicans as a whole, the GOP is going to have their hands full with any GOTV efforts.
could be a good year
(but that’s what we said in 04…)
Assume everyone has seen the AP/Yahoo story tonight that links Tom Reynolds with the breaking Foley scandal? Daily Kos has more at
http://www.dailykos.com
We’re on it
http://rochesterturning.com/?p=382
For the records, Christine Murphy is a “Democrat” who used to be a Republican. She lives out of the district in Penfield. People connected with Republicans in Buffalo passed petitions to get her on the ballot. It was actually the Greens who got her thrown off the ballot. Davis’ campaign didn’t want to help, until that poll came out - and they still did nothing about it. (Though they did thank us afterwards) There’s more about this, including names and their connection to the Republican party on the local Greens’ blog: http://gpomc.blogspot.com/2006/10/greens-successfully-defend-ballot-line.html
[...] Well, remember how there was a Green candidate in NY-26? We talked about it a little, and she got thrown off right before the whole Foley scandal happened. Well, this is even worse– instead of a Green being used by the Republicans, like in PA, the Green candidate was actually a Republican! From Dave Atias in a recent comment on RT: For the records, Christine Murphy is a “Democrat†who used to be a Republican. She lives out of the district in Penfield. People connected with Republicans in Buffalo passed petitions to get her on the ballot. It was actually the Greens who got her thrown off the ballot. Davis’ campaign didn’t want to help, until that poll came out - and they still did nothing about it. (Though they did thank us afterwards) There’s more about this, including names and their connection to the Republican party on the local Greens’ blog (link). [...]