Polling notes from NY-29
Via Daily Kos, the Massa campaign has some new polling details from the Kuhl/Massa race. Obviously, this is from a poll they commissioned, so take it with a grain of salt. But what they found certainly sounds interesting:
We just got in the latest round of polling data on my race to represent New York’s 29th District in Congress and it looks very good. In April, when the race was first polled by Seacrest and Co., it showed us in a statistical tie. Now, five months later, after the Independence and Conservative party endorsements have been thrown to my opponent, and despite a five-point bump in President Bush’s national approval rating, we are one of only a few challenger races that has not lost ground. According to the preliminary numbers I received at the end of the week, we are still in a statistical dead heat with Randy Kuhl.
There are a number of possible reasons for this, each more encouraging than the last. If the endorsements of the Independence and Conservative parties are worth approximately 9 points, as some Washington insiders assume, then that means either we have persuaded some of those voters to break party ranks, or we have offset that number by persuading an equal number of other voters. I tend to think that a combination of the two is most likely, especially in light of the most promising statistic yet: among voters who are familiar with both myself and my opponent (about 40% of registered voters) I enjoy a 2-to-1 lead. If you couple that with the figure that suggests that nearly 2/3 of voters would like to see a Democratic Congress, then the meaning is clear. Once we get the word out to more voters, their dissatisfaction with Randy Kuhl and his rubber-stamp politics will come out in full force. This already heated race just got a lot hotter.
Related posts:
Massa’s New Poll…
Eric Massa’s weekly diary reports that internal campaign polls show the race in the 29th as a dead heat. This is only the second public report of polling data in the 29th - the first was in April. Both have…