The Hillary effect
The Wall Street Journal has a piece today on the impact Hillary may have upstate:
But the prospective Democratic presidential candidate is thinking beyond 2006, to 2008. “She wants to drive up the vote,” says Curtis Ellis, a strategist for Mr. Reynolds’ Democratic rival, industrialist Jack Davis. Sen. Clinton’s objective is to impress the nation’s political class, with a heavy vote not just from reliably Democratic New York City but from historically Republican upstate New York…
The flip-side of the turnout coin also gives Democrats hope — and Republicans’ heartburn. Just as Democrats are energized by opposition to President Bush, the Republican-led Congress and the war in Iraq, Republican voters nationwide are demoralized. Party leaders almost everywhere are fretful that many will stay home on Election Day. In New York, with the Senate seat and governorship seen as lost causes, and Mr. Bush and Congress even more disreputable, Republicans’ fears of low turnout are even more pronounced.
The article says Kuhl is the most vulnerable incumbent, making NY-29 the second most likely district to flip (after Boehlert’s open seat):
They say their next best shot is against freshman Rep. Randy Kuhl, who is challenged by Eric Massa, a former aide to retired Gen. Wesley Clark; though Mr. Kuhl’s district running north from the Pennsylvania border to Rochester’s suburbs was drawn to be solidly Republican, his unspectacular showing in 2004 whetted Democrats’ appetites.
But Republicans say their polls show Mr. Kuhl as well as five other targeted New York Republicans are running ahead of their Democratic foes.
Huh? Has anyone heard about this poll where Kuhl is running ahead of Massa?
Well said.
Maybe internal GOP polling? If so, it’s unusual to not release polls if they show he’s ahead.
It’s interesting, because most Democrats I know are not fans of Hillary. In fact, I think there would have been a fair amount of support for giving her the Lieberman treatment. Yet, she is influential and does have the ability to help our local guys win. So I guess for now I’m glad she’s in office. But if she keeps acting like a Republican, it might be time to throw her out next election
Throw her out this election. Vote Tasini September 12th.
http://www.tasinifornewyork.org
I guess my trackback didn’t work. The article says “internal” GOP polls. So it has to be taken with a giant grain of salt. And, as bythepeople notes, if it were a good poll, we’d probably have heard about it. Though, perhaps not, because it shouldn’t be news that an incumbent is ahead in a “safe” district.
I’m skeptical that there have been any good _internal_ polls in this race. Walsh ran two where he felt he looked good and got them plastered all over the media. If Kuhl had good ones, he’d do the same.